China's June Crude Oil Imports from Gulf States Plunge 76% Year-over-Year
N.R. Finch
China's crude imports from Gulf states collapsed 76.1% year-on-year in June, while total crude imports fell 41.3% to 29.27 million tonnes; analysts expect the slump to persist through Q3, making a Q4 recovery the key test for global oil demand.
Why did Gulf crude imports fall by more than three-quarters?
Chinese customs data show June crude imports from Gulf states plunged 76.1% year-on-year.
Total crude imports dropped 41.3% in the same month, to 29.27 million tonnes.
This means → Gulf-to-China supply was compressed to near zero — not a seasonal blip, but a systemic pullback in purchasing.
Is the Russian crude discount still there?
Russian crude imports weakened for a second straight month, slipping 0.6% year-on-year in June.
Xu Muyu, senior crude analyst at Kpler — an energy trade-intelligence firm — noted that market knock-on effects from the Iran war pushed Russian crude prices higher, sharply narrowing the discount China previously enjoyed.
In plain terms = buying Russian oil used to save real money; that savings window is closing, and with it the incentive to buy.
What period do the June numbers actually reflect?
Xu said the June import figures mainly capture procurement decisions made in March–April, when oil prices were still elevated.
She added that weak refinery margins, ongoing curbs on refined-product exports, and sluggish domestic fuel demand jointly suppressed refinery throughput.
This means → refineries aren't profitable → they cut runs → they cut crude purchases. The pressure transmits link by link from end-user demand up to feedstock buying.
Will the next few months look any better?
Xu expects China's seaborne crude imports to stay relatively low through July–September.
This means → China's pull on global crude demand will remain constrained in the near term.
Whether volumes recover in Q4 is the key verification point for the market — if imports still haven't rebounded by then, the demand-side case for global oil prices faces even greater pressure.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.