CICC: Global Assets Face Multiple Headwinds in September; Buy the Dip in US/China Tech Stocks and Gold
nashnova research
CICC warns that September brings concentrated AI bond issuance, a hawkish Fed Chair Warsh, and oil above $100 — and recommends buying China/US tech stocks and gold on weakness.
How is the AI financing wave pushing up Treasury yields?
September is the traditional peak month for US investment-grade credit issuance; underwriters expect roughly $215 billion in new corporate bonds this month alone.
This means → long-duration AI credit and Treasuries are competing for the same pool of duration capital, and the fresh supply mechanically lifts long-end yields.
For the full year, CICC projects 2026 investment-grade net supply near $1 trillion, up more than 70% year-on-year.
In plain terms = seventy percent more borrowers showed up — rates go up.
How much risk capital are IPOs draining?
US IPOs have raised roughly $137.6 billion year-to-date, up 464% year-on-year. SpaceX alone raised about $85.7 billion, the largest IPO in US history.
Anthropic filed for an IPO in June; the market expects a launch as early as October.
This means → bond financing adds duration supply and disrupts long-end rates, while IPOs siphon risk capital — together they pressure richly valued assets.
Oil above $100 — what does it mean for inflation?
Escalating Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude from an $87.8/bbl low on August 26 to above $100/bbl intraday on September 9.
CICC forecasts August US headline CPI at 0.36% m/m (prior 0.07%), holding 3.37% y/y; core CPI at just 0.18% m/m (prior 0.22%), falling to 2.35% y/y.
This reflects a rebound driven almost entirely by energy, while falling used-car wholesale prices and easing tariffs kept core goods inflation low.
In plain terms = oil is rising, but strip out energy and prices are actually cooling.
What does Warsh's hawkish turn signal?
At Jackson Hole, Warsh stated for the first time that inflation must fall "clearly and at a sufficiently rapid pace" toward 2%, or the Fed will still need to act.
CICC sees this as a possible move to restore dollar credibility, but notes US fundamentals do not support a hike — underlying inflation is modest and the labor market is cooling.
The bank keeps no hike in September as its base case, but can no longer rule out an "overcorrection" hike to restore credibility.
What to buy and what to wait on?
Gold remains the clearest overweight — whether the Fed eventually eases or a policy mistake damages dollar credibility, the medium-term case is intact.
China/US tech stocks are worth adding on dips; the recent pullback stems from funding and sentiment pressure, not a fundamental deterioration in earnings.
Treasuries are not a rush-to-buy — September AI financing and rate-hike risk can still disrupt long-end yields, making them less certain than gold or equities.
Where is the rebound window?
CICC sees the period after the September 16 FOMC meeting as the highest risk-reward rebound window — AI bond issuance pressure should ease at the margin, with seasonal relief in October–November.
A rebound could come earlier if Trump quickly resolves the Middle East conflict, CPI prints well below expectations, or another major policy shift occurs.
This means → the directional case is positive, but trading timing needs to stay flexible.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。