CICC: LNG Price Center May Enter an Upward Cycle
Nashnova编辑部
CICC warns that global LNG supply turned negative in H1 2026 — a 5.8-bcm shortfall — with winter spot prices at risk of breaching $40/MMBtu in extreme scenarios. This means natural gas is shifting back from 'cheap energy' to 'expensive energy.'
Why did H1 supply actually shrink?
Global LNG exports totalled 281.2 bcm in H1 2026, down roughly 5.8 bcm year-on-year.
January–February saw about 10 bcm of extra supply, but the market absorbed all of it by March–June. This means → the surplus came and went fast; no buffer was built.
The shortfall landed mostly on Northeast Asia; European imports stayed flat. In plain terms = Asia bore the brunt of the squeeze.
How high could winter prices go?
CICC models two scenarios: if Qatar resumes output from October, global supply still falls about 16 bcm for the full year; if it stays offline, the gap widens to 26 bcm.
China has little room to cut imports further, European demand elasticity has declined, and inventories are low.
Autumn JKM — the Asian LNG benchmark — is forecast at $15–25/MMBtu; winter may centre at $25–35, with an extreme tail above $40. This means → winter 2026 carries the highest gas-price volatility risk in years.
When does the market loosen again?
If Qatar normalises in 2027 and US projects under construction come online, supply–demand could ease by H2 2027.
If the restart keeps slipping, the tight balance may persist into H1 2028.
Longer term, North American LNG will expand — but US liquefaction fees and feedgas costs are both rising. This reflects a structural shift: even when supply recovers, the LNG "floor price" is higher than before. CICC lifts its medium-term price centre from $8–10 to $10–15/MMBtu.
What about China's own gas demand?
China's apparent gas consumption fell 2.4% year-on-year in H1 2026; industrial and power-generation demand was displaced by coal and renewables.
CICC expects demand to stay soft in 2026–2027. Domestic gas output during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will grow by roughly 5–6 bcm/year, slower than the 14th plan.
After 2028, as global supply loosens and China's gas-pricing mechanism matures, demand growth could return to mid-to-high single digits. In plain terms = near-term consumption is falling, but medium-to-long-term demand will come back.
What's the investment call — and where are the risks?
CICC maintains that upstream resource companies offer allocation value.
The two key verification points: Qatar's restart timeline and the pace of new US capacity — these determine whether the supply–demand thesis plays out.
Risk flags: sharp oil-and-gas price swings, geopolitical escalation beyond expectations, faster-than-expected new capacity, and a weaker-than-expected recovery in Chinese gas demand.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。