Citi: Chinese Automakers Could Capture 15%-30% of European Market by 2035
Nashnova编辑部
Citi projects Chinese automakers' European market share will rise from roughly 10% today to 15%–30% by 2035, with the exact outcome hinging on how far Brussels tightens the rules — meaning the next decade of European auto is shaped more by policy than by product.
How wide is the gap between the three scenarios?
Citi's team, led by Harald Hendrikse, maps three paths: current rules hold → 30%; EV tariffs extended to plug-in hybrids → 25%; the proposed Industrial Acceleration Act enforced → 15%.
This means → one policy variable alone can double the spread in the final market-share outcome.
In plain terms = how much of the pie Chinese automakers get depends less on how well their cars sell and more on how tightly the EU draws the boundary.
Why does the "Made in Europe" clause hit hardest?
If the Industrial Acceleration Act — a bill under discussion that would require local assembly and local supply chains — takes effect, Chinese automakers' share would plunge to 5% within two years and stay capped at 15% through 2035.
This means → the core edge for Chinese automakers is cost advantage; forcing them to build locally and source locally neutralises that edge directly.
In plain terms = the rule doesn't say "you can't come" — it says "you must play at our cost structure," effectively disarming the price-war weapon.
How fast has the Chinese share been growing?
Data from Schmidt Automotive Research shows Chinese automakers held 10% of the market across 18 Western European countries in April, up from just 4.9% a year earlier — a doubling in twelve months.
The main drivers are BYD and SAIC's MG brand.
This reflects a real basis for alarm in European political and manufacturing circles: at this pace, the market map gets rewritten well before 2035.
What happens to European and Japanese-Korean incumbents?
Citi warns that European-native automakers could face a decade-long stretch of declining volumes and structural restructuring.
Under the base case, Japanese and Korean automakers' European share would also fall from roughly 20% last year to below 16% by 2035.
This means → Chinese brands are not just taking share from European names — Japanese and Korean brands are squeezed too. The entire "non-local" camp is reshuffling, and Chinese brands are the only ones gaining.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.