Commodity Prices Approach 18-Year Highs as Global Inflation Pressures Intensify
nashnova research
The CRB commodity index rose to roughly 420, up about 30% since the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted in late February and only about 10% below its 2008 all-time high. This means → energy, metals, and precious metals are rallying in unison, pushing inflation risk back onto every central bank's agenda.
How much have commodities risen — and what is driving it?
The FTSE/CoreCommodity CRB index — a broad benchmark for global commodity prices — hit roughly 420 on Tuesday, approaching its August 2008 level and sitting about 10% below the all-time peak of roughly 474.
Unlike past rallies, this one is powered by energy, precious metals, and base metals simultaneously, not a single commodity class.
This reflects three forces acting at once: supply disruption, structural demand growth, and weakening confidence in the dollar — far more thrust than any single trigger could produce.
How is the Middle East conflict feeding through to energy prices?
After the U.S.–Iran conflict broke out in late February, the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil — has been effectively blockaded.
Benchmark crude is up more than 30% from pre-conflict levels; European and Asian natural-gas benchmarks have more than doubled.
In plain terms = the world's most critical energy shipping lane is blocked, so oil and gas prices jumped immediately — this is the most direct fuse for the broader rally.
Why are copper and gold rallying too?
Mizuho's Kazutomo Nomura said copper's gains reflect expectations of rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles; international copper hit a roughly seven-month high on Monday.
This means → AI expansion and decarbonization are consuming copper at the same time — copper is no longer just an industrial gauge but a thermometer for both tech and the energy transition.
Gold has risen roughly five-fold since 2008. ABC Refinery's Nicholas Frappell attributes this to central banks accelerating gold purchases since 2022 — driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal health and the risk of dollar-asset freezes.
How does this rally differ from 2008 and 2022?
Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodity research Daan Struyven notes: in 2008, China's rapid growth exhausted spare capacity, creating a structural supply-demand squeeze; in 2022, the driver was supply fear from the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
This time, supply disruption is significant, but ample inventories + rising U.S. output have prevented the extreme oil spikes seen before.
Struyven warns, however, that the refining market is structurally tight and refining margins have surged. In plain terms = crude itself is holding up, but the step that turns crude into gasoline and diesel is already strained.
How much has the inflation outlook worsened — and what can central banks do?
The IMF's July update raised its 2026 global inflation forecast from 4.1% to 4.7% and stated explicitly that "the disinflationary trend since early 2024 has stalled."
President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to cut rates further, but commodity-driven inflation may compress the room for additional easing.
This means → politics wants cheaper money, but the data say inflation hasn't retreated enough — the Fed is caught in between, and its room to maneuver is shrinking.
Why is Japan the most exposed?
Japan is heavily dependent on commodity imports, and a weak yen is amplifying the rise in import costs.
Senior economist Ken Ueno at Japan Institute of Life Insurance warns: if the yen stays weak while commodity prices remain elevated, it will be a sustained drag on household spending and corporate profits.
This reflects a broader risk chain: commodity prices up → import costs up → consumption and margins squeezed → overall economic slowdown. Whether the CRB index holds at current levels — or pushes closer to the 2008 peak — will be a key test of whether this round of inflation pressure can persist.
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