Copper Prices Post Weekly Gains as Chinese Buyers Return, Pushing Yangshan Premium to Three-Year High
nashnova research
Copper is on track for gains in 11 of the past 12 weeks, trading at $14,458.50 per tonne, as China's Yangshan premium hits its highest since November 2022 — a clear signal that physical buyers are back.
Yangshan premium at a three-year high — what does it mean?
The Yangshan premium — the extra price Chinese importers pay above the London benchmark — rose Thursday to $121 per tonne, the highest since November 2022. Yangshan is the main copper-import port near Shanghai.
This means → Chinese buyers are not speculating on futures; they are purchasing physical metal. The demand is real.
At the same time, China's August refined-copper output edged down from July, tightening supply just as demand picks up.
Copper is up 16% this year — what is driving it?
Copper has rallied 16% year-to-date. Bloomberg reports that the expectation of Trump-administration tariffs on refined copper triggered a surge of imports into the U.S., draining supply elsewhere.
In plain terms = the U.S. is stockpiling copper ahead of tariffs, pulling metal away from the rest of the world and pushing prices up.
The final shape of U.S. copper tariff policy remains the single biggest variable for whether this rally continues.
The Fed just hiked — why didn't copper sell off?
The Fed announced its first rate hike since 2023 this week and signaled further tightening. Higher rates typically weigh on commodities — holding copper earns no interest, so the higher rates go, the greater the opportunity cost.
Yet copper dipped only 0.2%. This reflects a supply-demand squeeze strong enough to overpower the rate headwind.
Put simply = rates are rising, but the shortage of physical copper is a more urgent problem, so prices held.
What comes next?
Analysts at BMI, a Fitch unit, expect base metals to largely range-trade in the coming weeks, with supply-side risks offset by a fragile macro backdrop.
This means → a big move in either direction is unlikely in the short term. Until U.S. tariff policy is finalized, the market is in wait-and-see mode.
Elsewhere, aluminium slipped 0.3%; iron ore rose for a third straight day to $97.15 per tonne in Singapore.
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