CSC: A-Shares Enter Second Round of Recovery, Balanced Allocation Between AI Computing Power and Dividend Assets
nashnova research
China Securities Construction (中信建投) says A-shares have entered a second recovery leg as Middle East tensions ease, oil and U.S. Treasury yields pull back, and capital rotates back into high-growth sectors — recommending AI compute for offense, dividends for defense, and domestic demand for tactical plays.
Why call it a "second recovery"?
Since mid-August the market's dominant thread has been offshore inflation and liquidity repricing: Middle East conflict pushed oil to its year-to-date high, and officials guided expectations toward a Fed rate hike.
With the hike now landed and tensions easing at the margin, oil prices and long-end U.S. Treasury yields have fallen in tandem, relieving near-term macro pressure.
This means → the external headwinds that weighed on A-shares have temporarily receded, opening a window for capital to rotate back into high-growth names.
How much did China's market actually feel this?
CSC states explicitly that this round of geopolitical shock had limited impact on China's market.
China's accommodative rate environment and the renminbi exchange rate both stayed stable throughout.
In plain terms = while global markets were sweating inflation, China's money supply and currency stayed calm.
What does the offensive playbook look like?
Within the AI compute supply chain (the hardware layer powering AI infrastructure), CSC favors segments with tight supply and sustained price increases — specifically optical chips, PCB manufacturing, copper-clad laminates (CCL), and server systems.
Industrial metals — copper, aluminum, tin — are added as a parallel bet, riding the physical-demand pull from compute buildouts.
This means → the offense is not "buy anything with an AI label." It targets the links where real shortages drive real pricing power.
What anchors the defensive side?
Dividend assets — stocks with long, stable payout histories such as banks, insurers, and transport operators — serve as the portfolio's base layer.
In China's low-rate environment, these deliver steady income and cushion against volatility.
In plain terms = rates are low → bond yields are thin → high-dividend stocks become the next-best "fixed income."
Where do the tactical domestic-demand bets go?
Agriculture: rising global grain prices underpin sector fundamentals.
Medical aesthetics and textile/apparel: both sit at valuation and positioning lows, and could rally on pro-consumption policy expectations.
This reflects a three-tier framework: "tech for offense, dividends for defense, domestic-demand dips for opportunistic fills."
How far can this recovery run?
CSC flags a clear caveat: the rate-hike cycle has begun, and every upcoming Fed policy meeting will be a fresh battleground over whether hikes continue.
The late-October Fed meeting is the key checkpoint.
This means → whether the recovery extends hinges on whether offshore rates and oil keep falling — if either reverses, the window could close at any time.
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