Data Center Nuclear Power Demand Pushes Uranium Prices to Near 18-Year Highs
nashnova research
Spot uranium has climbed to nearly $90 per pound while long-term contract prices hit an 18-year high — data-center hunger for nuclear power, stacked on chronic supply shortfalls, is driving a structural bull case for uranium.
How far has uranium climbed?
Uranium concentrate (U3O8, known as "yellowcake" — the base fuel for nuclear reactors) has reached nearly $90/lb on the spot market, the highest since early February.
This means → prices are roughly five times the post-Fukushima trough of 2011.
The bigger signal sits in long-term uranium prices — reflecting utilities' willingness to lock in multi-year supply contracts — which have hit their highest level in at least 18 years. Long-term prices reveal how buyers truly read future supply and demand.
Who is driving demand?
Data centers are the largest new source of buying pressure. Several hyperscale cloud operators have publicly committed to powering compute with nuclear energy.
This week's concrete example: Nordic utility Fortum signed a deal with Google to supply nuclear power to a Finnish data center, extending the life of the Loviisa plant in the process.
In plain terms = big tech is no longer just talking about nuclear — it is signing contracts and keeping aging plants running longer.
Separately, governments pursuing energy security and coal phase-outs are investing in new nuclear projects — a demand line independent of data centers and longer in duration.
Why can't supply keep up?
UBS expects the uranium supply deficit to widen through the 2030s and beyond.
The CEO of Kazatomprom — the world's largest uranium producer — put it bluntly: "The era of 'cheap' uranium is fading." Production costs across the industry are under pressure.
This means → even after a fivefold price recovery, miners still cannot release capacity fast enough. Supply elasticity is far lower than the market once assumed.
Where do banks see the price heading?
Jefferies last week raised its long-term uranium forecast by 36% to $95/lb.
Citi went further — projecting uranium could jump to $140/lb by end-2027.
Put simply = both banks are saying the same thing: $90 may be the midpoint, not the peak.
Why hasn't the biggest miner stepped in?
Analysts compared uranium to copper and asked BHP — the world's largest mining company — whether it was turning more bullish on uranium. CEO Brandon Craig called it "very attractive" but treats it only as a by-product of copper mining.
Citi analysts flagged the reason: the uranium market is roughly $10 billion in size — it would need to triple before BHP takes serious strategic interest.
This reflects a structural tension — prices are rising and the outlook is improving, yet the market is still too small to pull in the biggest capital.
What are the risks?
Western nuclear projects are advancing slowly overall; over the next five years, several uranium mines are set to come online and could gradually lift global supply.
UxC president Jonathan Hinze warned that if data-center expansion slows due to public backlash, new reactor construction could be delayed in turn — demand is not guaranteed.
UBS itself conceded: "While the medium-to-long-term outlook is constructive, near-term macro headwinds are hard to ignore." Spot uranium has turned notably more volatile since approaching $100/lb earlier this year.
In plain terms = the bull thesis holds, but the pace of delivery hinges on two variables: whether miners keep supply restrained, and whether data-center nuclear demand keeps converting into real contracts.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。