Deutsche Bank: China's Actual Gold Reserves May Already Account for 25%
Nashnova编辑部
Deutsche Bank estimates that China's gold reserves may already account for 25% of its combined gold-plus-FX reserves — far above the PBOC's officially reported holdings — suggesting the global reserve rebalancing has advanced further than markets realize.
Where does the 25% figure come from?
Deutsche Bank's core logic: since 2013, China's available gold supply has consistently exceeded known private demand from jewelry and investment — the surplus gold must have gone somewhere.
The bank argues a significant share entered official reserves. Adding this undisclosed cumulative holding to the PBOC's reported reserves produces the 25% scenario.
This means → the PBOC's official monthly additions average roughly 150,000 troy ounces, but Deutsche Bank's estimate of undisclosed monthly additions runs at about 1.36 million troy ounces — nearly 10 times the official pace.
What does "maximum assumption" mean?
Deutsche Bank explicitly states that both 25% and the longer-term 40% trajectory are scenario estimates, not precise statistics.
The premise is a "maximum assumption": all gold in China's market exceeding known private demand is entirely absorbed by official institutions.
In plain terms = this is an upper-bound estimate. If some of that surplus gold stayed in private hands, the actual official share would fall below 25%.
How large are China's gold imports?
Customs data show that since April, China's gold imports on a three-month rolling annualized basis have reached $284 billion.
Deutsche Bank notes the dollar figure is inflated by rising gold prices. The more meaningful metric is physical volume: China has sustained imports of roughly 5 million troy ounces per month, or about 60 million troy ounces annualized (≈1,865 tonnes).
This reflects China's steady, large-scale absorption of global gold supply — filling the gap left by India, where demand weakened after a May tax hike and Prime Minister Modi's public call to reduce gold purchases.
What are the two key uncertainties?
Factor one: some of the surplus gold may have flowed into the private sector, not official reserves — this would make the 25% estimate too high.
Factor two: the PBOC or other official entities may buy and store gold directly in overseas markets such as London. These transactions bypass Chinese customs and do not appear in import data.
In plain terms = one factor pulls the estimate down, the other pushes it up. Private absorption would overstate official holdings; offshore purchases would mean the true figure is higher — but harder to confirm externally.
What does this mean for global reserves?
Deutsche Bank noted in April that before the 1990s, gold accounted for 40%–70% of global official reserves. The current share sits well below that range.
Even if China has reached 25%, there is still a gap to the historical floor of 40%. Whether other emerging-market central banks follow suit — adding gold, reducing dollar reserves — is the key variable.
This means → if emerging-market central banks collectively shift toward gold, the global "de-dollarization" of reserves may only be at the midpoint, not near the end.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.