Dimon: Markets Underestimate Risks; Won't Buy Stocks or Long-Term Treasuries
Miles Bennett
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks and that he personally would not buy stocks or long-dated U.S. Treasuries at current prices — Wall Street's most influential banker thinks the market is priced too optimistically.
What exactly is Dimon worried about?
He listed four risk layers: the Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, U.S.–China tensions, and rising military spending against a backdrop of ballooning deficits.
He believes these risks "may be bigger than others think." This means → he sees markets treating geopolitical conflict as background noise rather than a real pricing factor.
He acknowledged the global economy is more resilient because energy dependence is lower than in past cycles — but stressed that a sudden tipping point is still possible. In plain terms = the camel can carry more straw now, but nobody knows when the last straw lands.
Why won't he touch long-dated Treasuries?
Dimon warned that persistent U.S. fiscal deficits will eventually force the market to reprice, pushing rates higher.
Even if inflation falls back to the Fed's 2% target, 10-year Treasury yields should sit around 4% to 4.5%, he said. This means → upside in bond prices is very limited; buying long bonds is a bet on rates falling, and he does not believe that will happen.
Asked directly whether he would buy long-dated Treasuries, he answered: "Personally, no."
What about stocks — why pass on those too?
Dimon said he would consider an individual stock if it were a "great investment opportunity," but would not buy the broad market at current valuations.
Context: the S&P 500 has rallied roughly 10% year-to-date, supported by consumer resilience, cooling inflation, and AI-trade enthusiasm.
This reflects his view that current prices have fully absorbed the good news, while geopolitical and fiscal risks remain underpriced.
How does he view the AI investment boom?
Dimon compared the current AI frenzy to the early internet era, saying overall returns will "most likely materialize, just like the internet."
But he warned: the way returns arrive and the timeline "will definitely not be what you expect."
He pointed out that early internet giants Yahoo and Netscape eventually faded, while latecomers like Google and Facebook became the real winners. In plain terms = AI will change the world, but today's front-runners may not be the final winners.
Why is he publicly criticizing UK tax policy?
Dimon attacked the UK bank tax surcharge again, warning: "If your tax system isn't competitive, capital will leave your country."
He flagged the wave of companies delisting from London in recent years as a concern. This reflects his belief that Britain is losing its standing as a financial center because of its tax regime.
Asked about his earlier suggestion that JPMorgan might scrap plans for a new London headquarters, he said no decision has been made yet but that he "wouldn't make that kind of binary decision" — this means → JPMorgan has not given up on London, but it is watching and waiting.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.