Easing US-Iran Tensions Boost Sentiment, but Oil Prices Continue to Fluctuate at Elevated Levels
nashnova research
Brent crude slipped to $95.20 a barrel in Thursday's Asian session as US-Iran hostilities showed a brief pause, but daily Hormuz Strait transits collapsed to just 4 vessels — supply risk remains unresolved and prices stay range-bound near multi-week highs.
Why did oil dip but not really drop?
Brent fell $0.43 (−0.45%) to $95.20/bbl; WTI fell $0.24 (−0.26%) to $90.77/bbl.
The previous session saw wild swings — both benchmarks moved roughly +$2 to −$1 intraday, touching the highest level since July 24.
This means → the market is not selling off; it is grinding sideways at the top — neither bulls nor bears are willing to commit.
How real is the "de-escalation" signal?
IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted the pullback came after early signs of a pause — no confirmed exchange of fire since around midday Wednesday, Sydney time.
He cautioned that the calm holding is "a big 'if'"; if it does, oil flowing out of Hormuz via dark-fleet and ship-to-ship transfers should return to last-weekend levels.
In plain terms = a few hours without gunfire is a comma, not a full stop — the market knows the difference.
What did Trump signal?
Trump said Wednesday that military action against Iran "won't go on for a very long time" and claimed the US destroyed newly built Iranian radar and missile systems along the strait.
He added: "Last night was a very heavy strike, and we are ready to do it again."
This reflects a "hit and step back" posture — but with the option to escalate at any time and no clear exit timeline.
Is the strait actually open? Why do the numbers clash?
Kpler, a vessel-tracking firm, recorded only 4 commodity ships transiting Hormuz on Wednesday — far below the 10-day average of roughly 13.
The US cited a separate figure: 17 million barrels of crude transited the strait on Monday, the largest single-day volume since the war began.
In plain terms = one dataset says "few ships," the other says "lots of oil" — they cover different time windows, and the market doubts the US number is sustainable.
What to watch next?
This round is the largest US-Iran military clash since July; the war is now in its seventh month, with neither side showing willingness to return to talks.
Whether daily Hormuz transits can recover from 4 vessels back toward the 13-vessel average is the key gauge for whether the supply-risk premium — the extra cost baked into oil prices because of shipping danger — can narrow.
This means → as long as strait traffic stays depressed, the elevated floor under oil prices is unlikely to break.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。