ECB's Knot: No Second-Round Inflation Effects from Iran War Yet, Ready to Act if Needed
nashnova research
ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said the US-Israeli war on Iran has not yet triggered second-round inflation. The central bank stands ready to deploy monetary-policy tools — the longer the war drags on, the harder the risks become to manage.
What is "second-round inflation," and why is the ECB watching for it?
Second-round inflation — the chain reaction where war-driven cost spikes (oil, shipping) push companies to raise prices and workers to demand higher wages, spreading inflation beyond the initial shock — is the transmission mechanism central banks fear most.
Kocher was explicit: no second-round effects have been observed so far. This means → the war's price impact remains at the "direct hit" stage and has not cascaded.
But he added a caveat: monetary policy must stay aligned with inflation expectations. In plain terms = seeing nothing today does not mean standing down — the radar stays on.
How does the ECB plan to respond?
Kocher's exact words: the ECB is "ready at any time to take monetary-policy measures if necessary."
This reflects a textbook central-bank communication move: no pre-commitment to hike or cut, but a clear signal that tools and willingness both exist.
Conflict intensity keeps shifting and uncertainty is high. This means → the ECB itself cannot lock in a next step — flexibility is the only option.
Can the eurozone hold up?
Kocher's assessment: the eurozone is weathering this difficult phase with relatively strong resilience.
But he warned: the longer the war lasts, the more complicated things get. In plain terms = the economy can take it for now, but time itself is a risk factor.
A key signal: medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. This means → markets still trust the ECB's ability to contain inflation — that trust is the eurozone's safety cushion.
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