ECB's Pereira: Inflation Diffusion Has Not Reached 2022 Levels, Closely Monitoring Natural Gas Prices
nashnova research
ECB Governing Council member Pereira said on Sept 16 that euro-zone inflation is not spreading as broadly as in 2022 — but surging gas prices and the AI shock are raising risks. Whether inflation broadens in coming months will set the ECB's rate-hike pace.
How broadly is inflation actually spreading?
Pereira stated clearly in London: inflation is spreading more slowly than in 2022.
He immediately added a caveat — "that doesn't mean it won't happen." The ECB will monitor very closely over coming months.
This means → the ECB's read is "contained for now, but not relaxed." The direction is undecided; the watch window has just opened.
What risks worry him most?
First: the recent sharp rise in natural gas prices — Pereira called it one of the variables he is watching most closely right now.
In plain terms = natural gas sits at the core of European energy costs. If gas stays elevated, electricity and manufacturing costs follow — and inflation finds it much easier to spread across sectors.
Second: the AI boom's impact on global growth and inflation. He labeled AI another "shock" the central bank is dealing with, adding that "risks have risen a lot over the past few months."
What does this mean for the rate path?
The ECB completed its second rate hike this year last week. Markets are pricing in at least three more hikes over roughly the next year.
This means → the key variable is straightforward: can inflation retreat without broadening further?
In plain terms = if inflation stays localized, the ECB can take its time. If it spreads the way it did in 2022, hikes will come faster and harder.
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