El Niño Combined with Crop Disease: Cocoa Futures Surge Over 70% Since June
nashnova research
New York cocoa futures have surged more than 70% since El Niño was confirmed in June. Abnormal weather, black pod disease and fertilizer shortages are hammering all four West African growing regions, squeezing the projected global surplus to just 25,000 tonnes — virtually no buffer.
Up 70% — what is driving this?
Since El Niño was confirmed in June, New York cocoa futures have climbed over 70%.
Three pressures hit at once: abnormal weather, spreading black pod disease, and a shortage of farming inputs.
This means → it is not a single scare but a compound supply shock, and the market is pricing in the worst case.
More than half the world's cocoa comes from West Africa — what happened to output?
Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, expects output to drop roughly 20% to 1.75 million tonnes this season. Ghana, the second largest, expects a 13% decline.
Together the two countries supply over half the world's cocoa. Both cutting output at once tightens global supply directly.
In plain terms = cocoa is not like oil — production is heavily concentrated. When West Africa stumbles, the whole world runs short.
StoneX and Hedgepoint Global Markets have both cut their surplus forecasts. The projected 2026-27 global surplus has narrowed to roughly 25,000 tonnes.
What is going wrong in each of the four producing countries?
Côte d'Ivoire: the main crop is initially pegged at 1.55–1.60 million tonnes, roughly flat year-on-year. But if El Niño strengthens the Harmattan — the hot, dry wind that blows from the Sahara across West Africa each winter — output could fall further in the back half of the season.
Ghana: the southwestern growing region has been persistently cool and overcast with poor sunlight, creating ideal conditions for black pod disease — a fungal infection that rots cocoa pods black. Local farmer Simon Essah says pods are visibly fewer than last year, and those that remain are smaller.
Nigeria: drought gave way to flooding; high winds knocked developing pods off trees and destroyed many cocoa trees outright. Output is expected to fall 2.4% to 288,000 tonnes.
Cameroon: black pod and pest damage are worsening. High fertilizer prices have spawned a wave of counterfeit pesticides, further undermining disease control.
Is there any good news that could cap prices?
Marex Group's head of agriculture sales, Jonathan Parkman, notes that earlier demand destruction and a partial output recovery built up "a pretty significant buffer" of inventory.
Three consecutive years of supply deficits had pushed cocoa futures to an all-time high in late 2024. Prices then fell sharply as consumers cut spending and several chocolate makers reformulated products around high cocoa costs, leaving demand persistently soft.
This means → the demand side has already cooled itself down and is unlikely to add fuel in the near term.
What is the one thing to watch next?
A projected surplus of roughly 25,000 tonnes leaves almost no slack in the supply-demand balance.
In plain terms = one more setback during the season could erase the surplus entirely — or flip it into a deficit.
Rabobank analyst Oran Van Dort says: "We are at an inflection point — at least weather-wise, we are still waiting to see, because anything could happen."
This reflects a deeper reality: whether this rally holds depends not on demand but on how weather and disease play out across the second half of the West African season.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。