Energy Storage Demand Drives Lithium Price Rally, Major Lithium Miners See Profits Surge in H1
nashnova research
Energy-storage demand pushed China's lithium price up 22% in the first half, lifting profits across major global miners — but analysts are split on whether oversupply will cap the rally by 2027.
How much did lithium prices rise, and who benefited?
China's lithium price climbed 22% in the first half, driven by rapid energy-storage buildout.
Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业) and Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) both posted their strongest first-half net profit in three years.
Australia's Pilbara Minerals (PLS Group) swung to a full-year net profit of A$526 million (≈US$377 million), from a loss a year earlier.
This means → the rebound is not a one-company story — every major miner is riding the same wave.
How strong is demand, really?
Albemarle reported global lithium demand grew 45% year-on-year through May, outpacing supply growth.
China's supply-chain inventories kept falling, confirming a tight market.
Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) said in its results that lithium prices still have room to rise in the near term.
In plain terms = downstream storage makers are scrambling for material, upstream stocks are draining — prices follow.
What is happening on the supply side?
Chile's SQM raised its full-year production guidance.
China's Chengxin Lithium (成新锂能) announced plans to invest over US$476 million in lithium-sulfate plants in Zimbabwe and Nigeria.
Tianqi management noted that some overseas restart projects face policy and logistics hurdles — actual supply recovery will take time.
This means → expansion plans are plentiful on paper, but the gap between announced capacity and deliverable lithium is real.
Why do analysts disagree?
UBS cut its lithium-price forecast by 5–35% last week, arguing supply growth will overtake demand from 2027.
Yet UBS conceded that "fundamentals are tight" and prices can still rise in H2 — the tension is bullish short-term, bearish long-term.
Jefferies analyst Jiang Shuhang said rising battery-production schedules signal solid demand, but warned that "market expectations may run ahead of the spot market."
In plain terms = both houses see strong demand; the disagreement is when new supply actually arrives — limited impact in late 2026, the real test is 2027.
How long can this rally last?
The key variable is singular: the pace at which supply accelerates in 2027.
If restart and greenfield projects deliver on schedule, the market flips from tight to oversupplied — and prices come under pressure.
If delivery lags expectations, lithium's firm tone can extend further.
This reflects a rally grounded in real fundamentals, but its durability depends on how fast the supply side delivers — not on whether demand can keep growing.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。