European Gallium Supply May Flow to US and Japan as Metlen Warns of Absent European Buyers
nashnova research
Greek energy group Metlen is about to bring 50 tonnes per year of gallium capacity online — enough for all of Europe — but European firms refuse to pay above Chinese prices, and the supply is already being snapped up by American and Japanese buyers. Europe's critical-minerals strategy faces a 'capacity without orders' problem.
50 tonnes covers all of Europe — so why is it leaving?
Metlen plans to start gallium production next year with annual capacity of about 50 tonnes, enough to cover Europe's entire yearly demand.
Yet roughly a quarter of that output is already sold to an unnamed US tech company, with two more non-European deals under negotiation.
This means → Europe's problem is not a lack of supply; it is a lack of European buyers willing to place orders before the metal ships elsewhere.
Why won't European companies pay up?
The core contradiction: the EU is "pushing hard" for Metlen to sell to Europe, while European firms keep buying cheaper gallium from China.
Metlen's production cost sits below $300 per kilogram; the European spot price tops $3,000 per kilogram — margins are wide, yet European buyers still balk at paying more than China charges.
In plain terms = governments talk "supply-chain security," but corporate procurement offices run on cost — the two ledgers don't match.
What gives the US and Japan the edge?
Analyst Henry Sanderson notes the US is pouring money into catching China's dominance in critical minerals; Europe's question has always been "where's the money?"
Jack Bedder, founder of Project Blue, says Japan has invested in critical-material supply chains for "years," while America's recent push is "one of the largest commodity-market interventions in a generation."
This reflects a deeper truth: the critical-minerals race is not just about who has mines or factories — it is about who is willing to pay upfront to lock in supply.
Why is gallium a must-have for every major power?
Gallium — a rare metal extracted from bauxite ore — is a key input for radar, missile seekers, satellites, and radio systems: core military hardware.
It is also essential to semiconductor manufacturing and carries strategic value across the AI technology supply chain.
China uses its dominant market position to impose export controls; buyers need a licence to obtain gallium. This means → any buyer dependent on Chinese supply can be cut off at any time.
Can Metlen compete head-to-head with China?
Chairman Evangelos Mytilineos says the company is working "around the clock" to drive costs down to $100 per kilogram, at which point it would be fully competitive with Chinese producers.
His words: "Let them flood the market — it will crush everyone else, but it won't crush us."
Rival Alcoa is also advancing a gallium project in Australia, backed by several Western governments. In plain terms = the Western supply side is accelerating its break from China, but Europe's demand side is not yet ready to absorb the capacity being built.
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