European Natural Gas Prices Rise 2.4% as Storage Levels Trail Last Year by 12 Percentage Points
nashnova research
The Dutch TTF front-month contract rose 2.4% Monday to €71.52 per megawatt-hour, driven by US-Iran supply fears and a storage gap; UniCredit warns high demand may last through end-2026.
Why is European gas rallying?
The Dutch TTF front-month settled at €71.52/MWh in late European morning trade, up 2.4% on the day.
Supply side: US-Iran tensions stoked fears of Middle East disruption; the Wall Street Journal reported tighter Qatari supply.
Demand side: UniCredit strategists say elevated demand is the bigger driver of this rally. This means → even if geopolitical risk fades, prices may not retreat — demand alone is putting a floor under gas.
How wide is the storage gap?
European gas storage stands at 65.09% of capacity, roughly 12 percentage points below the same period in August 2025.
In plain terms = last year at this time, Europe's "gas tank" was about 77% full; this year it is only 65% — a significant shortfall.
This reflects a restocking pace that has fallen well behind schedule, creating sustained upward pressure on prices.
How long could elevated prices last?
UniCredit strategists wrote: "The market is increasingly concerned that Europe's storage build is behind plan, potentially keeping demand elevated at least through end-2026."
This means → this is not a short-term blip lasting a week or two; it is a structural issue that could span an entire heating season.
Storage gap + inelastic demand = limited downside for gas prices, keeping energy-sector cost pressures in place for the near term.
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