Expectations for U.S. Crypto Bill Passage Cool Down, Bitcoin Pulls Back from Highs
nashnova research
Bitcoin retreated from an intraday high of $79,586 to below $78,000 after optimism over the U.S. Clarity Act advancing this week faded sharply. This means → the crypto market's near-term direction is caught between a Washington legislative gamble and the Fed's rate decision.
What happened to the prediction-market odds?
Polymarket data shows the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 briefly topped 30% during U.S. trading hours, then slid back to 18% by the Asian open.
This means → Monday's optimism was a one-off pulse, not a reversal of the downtrend that began in August.
In plain terms = back in May the market priced a roughly 70% chance the bill would pass; by August that had dropped to the low teens. This week's bounce already looks like another false start.
Does the Democratic counter-offer mean talks are alive or dead?
Senator Mark Warner said Democratic negotiators will submit a counter-offer to Republicans before Wednesday's procedural vote.
The bill needs 60 votes to advance in the Senate. This means → some Democrats must cross party lines; Republicans cannot clear the threshold alone.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas sees the counter-offer as "consistent with negotiations still being under way, not having collapsed." This reflects a market-analyst lean toward reading the situation as "still talking," not "already dead."
What are the two core sticking points?
Sticking point one: presidential crypto holdings. Democrats say current provisions cannot stop President Trump from profiting on crypto assets — he reported $1.4 billion in crypto-related income last year. The latest Republican draft requires elected officials to divest or place virtual assets above a threshold into a blind trust (an arrangement where the holder cannot direct trades), or face financial penalties.
Sticking point two: bank deposit flight. Some banks fear stablecoins — crypto tokens pegged to the dollar — could drain their deposits. The new draft gives the Treasury Secretary power to intervene when deposit outflows cause "harm" to community banks.
In plain terms = both disputes boil down to the same question: who gets hurt by the crypto wave, and how the law compensates them.
Did crypto stocks already front-run the move?
On Monday, as bill expectations warmed, Coinbase Global surged 9.2% and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group rose 7.5%.
This means → equities reacted faster than the coin itself, with capital rushing into "bill-beneficiary stocks" first.
This reflects a familiar pattern: during policy-driven episodes, related equities often swing harder than crypto itself, because equity traders are more attuned to legislative signals.
Why does the Fed decision matter just as much?
Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang notes the market prices roughly 86%–87% odds of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday. Bitcoin's consolidation in the mid-$70,000s suggests that base case is already digested.
She warns: "The bigger repricing risk would come from a hawkish surprise in the statement."
In plain terms = the hike itself is expected; what could actually move the market is the Fed signaling it will stay tighter for longer than traders assumed. The Clarity Act procedural vote and the Fed statement land back-to-back this week, forming a twin checkpoint for Bitcoin's near-term path.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。