Exposure of the US-Iran Preliminary Agreement Draft: A 60-day Ceasefire Across All Fronts, Revolutionary Guards Claiming 'Low' Possibility of War

Iran released signals to cool down from both diplomatic and military lines on the same day. A member of Iran's National Security Council, Brujerdhi, revealed that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement draft, and a Revolutionary Guard Navy official publicly stated that the possibility of resuming warfare with the United States is low.

This is the most specific public disclosure of the progress of US-Iran negotiations from Iran's side so far. If the agreement is implemented, it will significantly change the geopolitical risk landscape in the Middle East and have a direct impact on the global energy market and pricing of risk-avoiding assets.

According to CCTV News, Brujerdhi stated that according to the preliminary agreement draft reached by both parties, the US will commit to a comprehensive ceasefire for 60 days covering all fronts in the first phase, with an emphasis on the Lebanon direction. The agreement adopts a phased approach, and the phrase "all fronts" is noteworthy, hinting that the scope of the negotiations is not limited to the Iranian nuclear issue but may involve multiple conflict points such as Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

Currently, the agreement is still in the draft stage, and there is still uncertainty about whether it can be signed and implemented. The market needs to pay attention to the official response from the US and subsequent details disclosed.

The foreign affairs advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Velayati, posted on social media that Iran's red lines are very clear, "documents and signatures are no longer guarantees, the real guarantee for the survival of the agreement is the Strait of Hormuz".

Military also releases signals of easing

According to Tasnim News Agency, Revolutionary Guard Navy official Akbarzadeh stated that the possibility of a new war with the United States is "low", but Iran's armed forces are "fully loaded" and ready. The easing signal issued by the military rather than the diplomatic system itself has special significance, indicating that the senior ranks of the Revolutionary Guard are in support of the current direction of the negotiations, and the agreement's progress is not limited to the diplomatic level.

The concurrent phrases "low possibility of war" and "full combat readiness" continue Iran's consistent strategy of promoting peace talks through combat readiness, while also leaving room for domestic conservatives.

Geopolitical risk premium under pressure

With Iran's diplomatic and military cooling on both lines, if the US responds accordingly, the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East may narrow more quickly. The crude oil market is the first to be hit, and geopolitical tensions have always been one of the core factors supporting oil prices. The Revolutionary Guard Navy is directly responsible for the military deployment of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of the world's oil transportation volume. The military's easing statement is directly related to the market's risk assessment of this key passage.

Investors need to focus on two variables: whether the US formally confirms the agreement content, and whether subsequent phase negotiations are arranged during the 60-day ceasefire period. Unilateral cooling has limited impact on the market, only bilateral confirmation can fundamentally change risk pricing.