Fed Governor Waller: Inclined to Hold Rates Steady at September Meeting
nashnova research
Fed Governor Waller said he leans toward holding rates unchanged at the September meeting if inflation data stay on trend — putting him at odds with Chair Warsh's recent hawkish signal and widening the suspense over the September decision.
What exactly did Waller say?
In a Reuters interview, Waller said he is inclined to keep the fed-funds target range unchanged at the September 15–16 meeting.
He attached a condition: inflation data over the next two weeks must "continue the current trend" — otherwise he may shift.
This means → Waller is not an unconditional dove. He is handing the decision to the data; September is not locked in.
Where does he diverge from Chair Warsh?
At Jackson Hole last week, Fed Chair Warsh said the recent softening in monthly inflation "does not demonstrate a material improvement in the underlying trend."
He warned that "if the trend doesn't cooperate, we have more work to do." Markets read this as hawkish and sharply repriced the odds of a September hike.
In plain terms = same data, opposite reads. Warsh sees "not good enough"; Waller sees "already improving." The two policymakers' confidence in the inflation path is fundamentally different.
Why does Waller think inflation is improving?
He acknowledged that July headline inflation was 3.7% and core was 3.3% — both "well above" the Fed's 2% target.
But he argued that the annual figure "is not the best gauge of the current trend." On his preferred three-month measure, inflation has fallen from 4.76% in February to 3.05% now.
This means → Waller is leaning on a shorter, more responsive gauge to back his case — the speed of decline matters more than the absolute level.
How does he frame the risks?
Waller said tariff-driven inflation pressures are likely modest, and rising energy prices have not passed through meaningfully to the broader economy.
Yet he warned that any sign of re-acceleration could push him toward tighter policy.
This reflects a stance that is conditionally dovish: holding is the default only as long as the data cooperate — if inflation rebounds, he pivots fast.
What comes next?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August CPI and PPI next week.
These are the only two major inflation reports the Fed will have before the September meeting — and the key input for Waller's final call.
Put simply = next week's two prints are the referee in this dove-hawk standoff. Soft numbers validate Waller's "hold steady"; a bounce hands the momentum back to Warsh's hawkish line.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。