Former Goldman Sachs Commodities Head: Commodities Exhibiting a Rotational Rally Pattern
Nashnova编辑部
Jeff Currie, former head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, says commodities are rallying one after another — oil first, then copper and gold, then agriculture — driven not by broad demand but by supply bottlenecks migrating across markets.
What does "rotational rally" mean?
Currie observes that commodities are not rising together. Instead, one sector peaks, then the next takes over.
The sequence so far: crude oil and refined products → copper, gold, silver → cocoa, corn, and other agricultural goods.
In plain terms = hot money passes like a relay baton — it doesn't chase everything at once, it chases whatever is tightest right now.
Why is it happening this way?
The root cause, per Currie: supply bottlenecks keep migrating from one market to the next — once tightness in one commodity eases, capital floods into the next one still under strain.
This means → the trigger for each leg of the rally is not a surge in buyers — it is sellers running short of supply.
In plain terms = money follows scarcity. When one commodity loosens up, the next scarce one becomes the target.
What does this mean for investors?
The core takeaway from this framework: commodity rallies are driven by structural supply constraints, not by across-the-board demand expansion.
This means → the pace of the rally depends on how fast supply bottlenecks evolve across sectors, not on whether the global economy is booming.
This reflects a deeper signal: in a supply-constrained market, spotting "where the next bottleneck is" matters more than gauging "how strong demand is."
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.