Gold Rebounds From $4,000, Fidelity's Timmer Eyes $5,000
nashnova research
Gold has bounced back to $4,349/oz after consolidating near $4,000, and Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer sees roughly $5,067 — This means → the current price may still have 16.5% upside.
What path has gold taken to get here?
Gold surged from 2025 into early 2026, peaking at $5,595/oz, then pulled back roughly 22% to consolidate around $4,000.
After holding that range through June and July, gold rebounded to about $4,349/oz as of September 14.
In plain terms = the pattern is a three-act move — spike, pullback, re-launch — and the price is now in act three.
Where does Timmer's $5,067 target come from?
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments' director of global macro, uses a global liquidity model — a framework that tracks how much money central banks are pumping into the system to project where asset prices should trade.
That model currently points to roughly $5,067, about 16.5% above the latest price.
This means → the model sees gold as meaningfully undervalued, with rising global liquidity and expanding demand as the twin drivers.
What do the liquidity numbers actually show?
Timmer's chart tracks two data sets: global M2 growth — the year-on-year change in the worldwide broad money supply — and gold ETF fund flows.
Global M2 growth hit a cyclical peak of 12.0% in early 2026; the gold ETF flow reading was marked at 18.9.
This reflects money supply and positioning expanding in tandem, both pointing toward upward pressure on gold.
The Fed just hiked — why is gold still rising?
The Federal Reserve recently announced its first rate hike since 2023 and signaled further tightening this year.
Yet gold futures still closed the week slightly higher, showing resilience against a tightening backdrop.
In plain terms = conventional logic says higher rates are bad for gold — holding gold earns no interest, so the opportunity cost rises with rates. The fact that gold gained anyway suggests the market cares more about liquidity expansion and safe-haven demand than about the rate move alone.
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