Goldman Sachs: Carry Trade Expected to Deliver Best Performance Since 2010 This Year
nashnova research
Goldman's strategy team says carry trades are heading for their best annual performance since records began in 2010, holding up through multiple rounds of yen intervention — a sign that the global rate-differential environment keeps feeding profits into this strategy.
Why are carry trades so profitable this year?
Carry trades — borrowing in a low-rate currency and parking the money in a high-rate one to pocket the spread — are on pace for their best year since Goldman began tracking in 2010.
This means → the gap between global interest rates is still wide enough to make "borrow cheap, deposit dear" a winning playbook.
The call comes from a Goldman team led by strategist Kamakshya Trivedi, who noted in a Friday report that the strategy has survived multiple shocks intact.
Didn't yen intervention already happen — so why is carry still standing?
The U.S. carried out "small but unusual" interventions in the yen and Treasury markets, yet carry strategies showed resilience throughout.
In plain terms = the intervention wasn't forceful enough to close the rate gap, so carry traders got a scare but stayed on their feet.
Goldman reads the moves as a signal: authorities have a "clear revealed preference" for propping up other assets — they would rather reach for unconventional small tools than take the harder road of fiscal or monetary tightening.
What does "more extreme measures" mean?
Goldman's report flags that this willingness to use unconventional tools raises a question: could policymakers eventually act at the dollar's expense?
This means → if pressure builds, a deliberate move to weaken the dollar is not off the table — and that would be the real threat to carry trades.
This reflects a deeper game: with fiscal tightening and rate hikes both being avoided, the exchange rate may become the policy-adjustment valve.
Looking ahead, where is the biggest risk?
Goldman's overall tone stays constructive: "Global economic conditions support further carry performance."
But the report flags a clear European risk — if geopolitical tensions flare up again and natural-gas flows stay restricted, energy prices could come under renewed pressure.
In plain terms = the EUR/USD options market currently bets on euro strength (positive skew pricing), but if the energy crisis returns, that bet could unravel, and a weaker euro would hit related carry positions in reverse.
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