Goldman Sachs: CATL Valuation Near Historic Lows as Automakers' In-House Battery Development Raises Market Concerns
nashnova research
Li Auto is dropping CATL across its entire lineup and has invested RMB 2.65 billion in cell maker Sunwoda; CATL's forward P/E has slid to roughly 13×, near its all-time floor — the market is now pricing one question: whether the battery giant's moat is intact.
What exactly did Li Auto do?
Li Auto plans to replace CATL batteries with its own cell technology across all models — not just one line.
To back the switch, Li Auto has made a RMB 2.65 billion strategic investment in Sunwoda, an in-house cell manufacturer.
This means → A top-tier EV maker is severing its battery dependency on CATL entirely, not just tweaking one supply contract.
What is the market really afraid of?
The core fear: if other EV makers follow Li Auto and develop cells in-house to cut costs, CATL's 40% global share faces systematic erosion.
In plain terms = One automaker going in-house is an anecdote; several doing it becomes a trend — and the market is pricing in the trend.
CATL held 40% of the global power-battery market from January to July 2026. The share itself is still dominant, but what matters for the stock is the direction of change at the margin.
What are the technicals signaling?
CATL's A-share 14-day RSI has dropped below 30, entering classic oversold territory.
Per Goldman Sachs data, RSI at this level over the past two years has typically marked buying opportunities.
This means → On technicals alone, this zone has historically been a rebound launchpad rather than a waypoint down — but only if fundamentals have not structurally deteriorated.
Where does the valuation stand?
CATL's trough forward P/E hit 12× in 2024; it now sits at roughly 13×, hugging the historic low band.
In plain terms = The market is pricing CATL almost as cheaply as it ever has in recent years.
This reflects not just the Li Auto headline but an advance discounting of a broader scenario: automakers collectively going in-house on batteries.
Is a low valuation enough to buy? What is the key variable?
Technicals (oversold RSI) and valuation (near historic floor) both point to short-term support.
Whether that support holds as a true bottom depends on one variable: can the automaker in-house battery trend be contained?
Put simply = If Li Auto turns out to be an exception, 13× P/E is a bargain. If more automakers follow, 13× may not be the floor.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。