Goldman Sachs: Chinese Companies' Export Share to Rise to 31% by 2035
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs projects Chinese companies' global export share will rise from 18% today to 31% by 2035, with revenue growing 3.6× — yet the market has barely priced any of it in.
What exactly does this report say?
Goldman published a report Monday covering 11 industries and 40 global companies — 21 Chinese firms and 19 international peers.
The headline call: Chinese firms' global export share rises from 18% to 31%, with revenue growing 3.6× by 2035.
This means → Goldman sees China's corporate expansion abroad shifting from a fringe story to a core pillar of global commerce — and argues the trend is only halfway through.
Which sectors have the most room to grow?
The report flags what it calls "latecomer" sectors: robotaxis, e-commerce, surgical robots, clear aligners, and power equipment.
The common thread is that Chinese entrants arrived late but are closing — or overtaking — incumbents on technology and cost.
In plain terms = Goldman is not betting on sectors China has already won; it is betting on the ones where Chinese firms have not yet taken full share.
Why does Goldman say the market has not priced this in?
Hong Kong-based analyst Trina Chen notes that in several industries, Chinese companies trade at below 1× P/E for their international revenue.
The report was co-authored by 36 analysts globally — a scale that signals Goldman treats China's overseas push as a firm-wide thematic call, not a sector note.
This means → there is a visible gap between valuations and the share-gain trajectory — if expansion delivers, current prices may significantly understate the offshore growth component.
How reliable is this call?
The report frames a decade-long trend forecast, not a short-term trade — moving from 18% to 31% share requires sustained policy, supply-chain, and market conditions.
Whether the valuation gap actually triggers a re-rating of China "going global" stocks remains to be proven by the market.
In plain terms = Goldman has drawn a compelling map with a clear logic chain, but no one can guarantee what the world looks like in ten years.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。