Goldman Sachs: Cracks Emerge in AI Momentum — Banks and Hard Assets Become the Next Trading Theme
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Goldman trader Natasha Tiwana warns that AI's momentum structure is being rewritten in real time — single-day momentum-factor drops above 5% have already exceeded the past five years' total — and recommends a tactical pivot toward European and Japanese banks and gold miners, targeting price-versus-earnings dislocations.
What exactly cracked inside the AI trade?
Goldman's high-beta momentum basket (GSPRHIMO — a basket of the market's recent biggest gainers) fell 12% in the latest drawdown; its AI pair-trade strategy dropped 10% in five days.
The deeper signal: in 2026, single-day momentum-factor drops exceeding 5% have already outnumbered the entire past five years combined. This means → the consensus crowding in AI names is being forcibly unwound, and the elevated volatility is structural, not a blip.
In plain terms = everyone used to pile into AI stocks and ride them up together. That crowd has scattered — some names still rise while others fall within the same basket. The sector no longer moves in lockstep.
Why are "winners" and "losers" swapping places?
The overlap between 12-month winners and 3-month winners has dropped to a multi-year low, while the overlap between 12-month winners and 3-month losers is near a high.
This means → last year's top performers are now among the recent losers. Capital is rotating out of semiconductors and AI hardware and into software.
Tiwana's view: factor volatility will stay elevated, driving rising demand for more granular hedging tools.
Why look at European and Japanese banks right now?
The market has repriced away its Fed rate-hike expectations, creating a divergence from European and Japanese rate paths. This means → European and Japanese banks collect a "higher for longer" net-interest-income tailwind, while U.S. banks face a murkier rate outlook.
Japanese banks have outperformed both TOPIX and Japanese semis over the past three months — with lower volatility.
European banks trade at roughly a 15% valuation discount to U.S. banks. Goldman's top value pick is Greek banks (GSXEGRBK) — valuations are converging toward euro-zone core peers but still carry about a 10% discount, with M&A optionality on top. European bank positioning sits at a two-year low.
Gold miners are up 32% in a month — is there still room?
Goldman's gold-miner basket (GSXGOLDM) has rallied 32% this month, driven by a rebound in Chinese demand and room for dovish Fed repricing.
Yet the basket remains roughly 12% below its all-time high. Forward P/E is only about 11×, a ~20% discount to the historical average.
In plain terms = a 32% run sounds stretched, but on both valuation and distance-to-peak measures the price has not yet reached "expensive."
Where is the next checkpoint for the AI trade?
Nvidia's Q2 earnings are the most important near-term catalyst; the packed September conference calendar will provide further validation.
Tiwana argues that the recent positioning washout, combined with still-strong AI fundamentals, gives September re-entry a healthier foundation than before — but execution must be more tactical, focusing on names where price and EPS have diverged significantly.
This week's joint announcement by Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK) sparked interest in healthcare AI. This reflects a quiet shift: the AI trade's validation checkpoint is migrating from compute infrastructure toward real-world application.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.