Goldman Sachs: Diesel Crisis Is Tightening Gasoline Supply, Recommends Buying European Gasoline Futures
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs warns that refiners chasing higher diesel margins are cutting gasoline output, passively tightening the gasoline market; the bank recommends buying European gasoline June 2027 contracts, seeing significant upside if geopolitical conflicts persist.
Diesel and gasoline — why are they linked?
A refinery's capacity is a fixed pie: more diesel means less gasoline. Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven note that refiners are shifting capacity from gasoline to higher-margin diesel, passively squeezing gasoline supply.
This means → diesel's price surge is not just a diesel story. It works like a seesaw — push diesel up, and gasoline follows.
U.S. diesel now averages $6.40 per gallon; gasoline averages about $4.44 per gallon, just ~13% below its all-time high.
What is Goldman's trade recommendation?
Goldman recommends clients buy European gasoline June 2027 delivery contracts, betting on further gasoline price gains.
Core logic: gasoline is relatively cheap right now. If Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts keep suppressing refinery output — or damage more energy infrastructure — the upside is substantial.
Goldman has already closed its European diesel spread position, booking roughly 45% in potential gains. The bank says diesel prices have fully priced in geopolitical disruption — the profit window on diesel has shut.
What is happening in the broader market?
Brent crude fell about 2% to $103 per barrel after Saudi Arabia signaled higher output, easing some supply fears.
Gold dropped roughly 1% under pressure from rising U.S. policy rates; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.98%.
In plain terms = crude and gold are both falling, yet Goldman is singling out gasoline as a buy. The gasoline squeeze is not about whether there is enough crude — it is a structural problem in how refining capacity is allocated.
What should we watch next?
Two key variables: the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts and the extent of damage to global refining infrastructure. As long as conflicts persist, refinery output stays under pressure and the gasoline squeeze deepens.
High diesel prices are already feeding through to trucking, agriculture, and industrial costs. If gasoline follows, inflation pressure at the consumer level will spread further.
This reflects a deeper signal: energy-market risk is shifting from "is there enough crude?" to "is the refined-product mix right?"
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