Goldman Sachs Doubles Diesel Crack Spread Forecast as Wars Disrupt Global Refining Capacity
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs more than doubled its US and EU diesel crack spread forecasts — US from $27 to $63/bbl — as Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars squeeze refining capacity and push product margins to new highs.
What exactly did Goldman change?
Goldman now expects the US diesel-to-Brent crack spread — how much a refinery earns turning crude into diesel — to average $63/bbl next year, up from a prior forecast of $27.
The EU equivalent jumped from $19 to $49/bbl, also more than doubling.
This means → Goldman sees refining super-profits not as a short-term blip but as a structural shortage sustaining elevated margins well into next year.
What went wrong on the supply side?
Global refinery outages are running 60% above seasonal norms, and product inventories keep falling despite some demand softening.
Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to 70-80% of pre-war levels, but refined-product shipments are at just 40%. In plain terms = crude oil can get out, but finished fuel cannot — the bottleneck sits in refining and product logistics.
Russia's diesel export ban has been extended through September, tightening global supply further.
What is adding pressure from the demand side?
Brazil, the world's second-largest diesel importer, is heading into its agricultural planting season — a period of seasonally higher diesel consumption.
The Northern Hemisphere winter is approaching, lifting heating-oil demand.
This means → supply is being crushed by war while two seasonal demand waves are still ahead, potentially widening the deficit.
What are industry leaders saying?
Shell CEO Wael Sawan described the current pressure as a "triple threat": attacks on Russian refineries, Persian Gulf shipping risks, and Red Sea disruptions.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said some crude tankers still pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but refined products cannot ship out at all.
This reflects an industry-level consensus that aligns with Goldman's analysis: the problem is not crude supply itself but the refining-and-transport chain from crude to finished fuel being severed by conflict.
What does this mean for markets?
Refined-product prices have already risen far more than crude oil; gasoline and other fuels are affected too.
Goldman's analysts stated explicitly that a full recovery in capacity depends on a de-escalation of global geopolitical tensions.
Put simply = as long as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars continue, refining margins are unlikely to retreat — that is the core logic behind Goldman's doubled forecasts.
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