Goldman Sachs: Foldable iPhone Competitively Priced, Shipments Could Reach Up to 35 Million Units in 2026
nashnova research
Apple's first foldable, the iPhone Duo, is priced at $1,999 — below Samsung's flagship fold — and Goldman Sachs holds its 2026 forecast at 14 million units base case, 35 million bull case, calling the pricing a potential gateway to the mass market.
$1,999 — is that actually affordable?
The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999, roughly $100 below Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra at $2,099.99.
Goldman analysts Allen Chang and Verena Jeng call the price "affordable" — Apple held below Samsung despite high memory costs and strong specs.
This means → Apple is not following its usual playbook of launching high and cutting later. It is targeting price-sensitive fence-sitters from day one.
What does the foldable market look like right now?
In Q2 2026, Huawei leads with roughly 50% of global foldable share at a blended ASP of about $1,600.
The global foldable ASP sits at $1,452. Apple enters the premium tier at $1,999.
This means → Apple is not chasing the low end. It is going head-to-head with Huawei for high-end foldable buyers; Goldman sees the pricing as competitive in that segment.
What is different about the design?
Folded, the iPhone Duo has a 5.4-inch screen; unfolded, 7.6 inches. It fits in one hand and in a pocket — Goldman calls it "the thinnest iPhone ever."
In plain terms = the old pain point with foldables was bulk and weight. Apple made "fits in your pocket" the core selling point, aiming to pull regular users off slab phones.
Under the hood: a hinge system — the mechanical joint that lets the phone fold — with over 100 precision components, an under-display front camera, and a next-gen vapor chamber (a thin heat-spreading plate) for cooling.
Which suppliers benefit the most?
Hinge maker Shin Zu Shing (新日興) has 75%–85% of its revenue tied to Apple; hinge products alone account for 40%–45% of its iPhone-related exposure — the most direct beneficiary.
Largan Precision (大立光) has 45%–50% Apple exposure; Hon Hai (鴻海) has 30%–35%. Goldman placed Hon Hai on its conviction buy list.
This means → once foldable iPhone volumes ramp, Shin Zu Shing has the highest leverage, but Hon Hai and Largan also benefit as large-cap Apple suppliers. Goldman rates all of them "buy."
What else stands out in the iPhone 18 Pro lineup?
The iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max runs the A20 Pro chip with deep Apple Intelligence integration, raising thermal demands — the new vapor chamber is a positive signal for cooling suppliers.
The rear camera adds a variable-aperture lens — a lens that adjusts how much light it lets in, improving shots in both low light and bright conditions. Goldman flags Largan as a key beneficiary.
Pricing is up roughly $100 versus the iPhone 17 Pro series; lead times are flat versus the prior generation.
Can the 35-million bull case actually happen?
Goldman offers two scenarios: base case 14 million units, bull case 35 million — a 2.5× gap that underscores deep uncertainty about foldable demand.
This reflects Goldman's core read: pricing and design are in place, but actual shipments hinge on whether consumers will pay a premium for the foldable form factor.
In plain terms = Apple has priced its entry ticket below Samsung's. The remaining question is whether foldable screens are a mass-market need or a niche want. The 2026 shipment number will be the definitive test.
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