Goldman Sachs: Global Equity Returns Expected to Narrow to Mid-to-High Single Digits Over the Next 12 Months
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer expects the S&P 500 and other major indices to deliver only mid-to-high single-digit returns over the coming year — well below recent gains — as a global bond sell-off and rising oil prices jointly squeeze the room for further upside.
Why is Goldman calling for a slowdown?
The S&P 500 is up roughly 12% year-to-date. Oppenheimer says that pace cannot hold — he sees returns falling to mid-to-high single-digit percentages over the next 12 months.
This means → not a crash call, but a shift from "sprint" to "jog" — the rate of gains slows markedly.
He adds that as long as the global economy keeps growing, that level is still "a reasonably good outcome."
What is happening in global bond markets?
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2023; the 30-year neared a two-decade high. Japan's 10-year yield broke 3% for the first time since 1996.
U.K. 10-year gilt yields touched their highest since mid-2007; Germany's 10-year Bund yield reached levels not seen since the 2011 euro-zone debt crisis peak.
In plain terms = this is not one country's bond market falling — it is a synchronized global sell-off, read by analysts as a vote of declining confidence in governments' ability to manage debt and control inflation.
Why does the bond sell-off matter for stocks?
Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley noted that equities have been able to "ignore" rising yields all year — but that indifference will not last forever.
This means → the higher bond yields (the interest return on government debt) go, the weaker the incentive to stay in stocks — because "risk-free" bonds become more attractive by comparison.
This reflects a market sitting at a tipping point: yields are not yet high enough to crush equities, but they are high enough to make investors nervous.
Why is oil adding to the pressure?
Crude prices broke above $90 a barrel again, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
Rising energy costs are feeding through to transport, agriculture, and manufacturing; corn and sugar prices have also climbed noticeably.
In plain terms = when oil rises, the cost of almost everything follows — that pushes up inflation expectations, which in turn pushes bond yields higher, creating a self-reinforcing loop.
What should investors watch from here?
Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye summed it up: high oil pushes yields up, and higher yields press stocks down — until that chain breaks, growth and cyclical sectors will keep leading the decline.
This means → whether the twin pressures from bonds and oil ease before year-end is the key variable that will prove or break Goldman's "slowdown, not a collapse" forecast.
Put simply, the next few months hinge not on corporate earnings but on whether rates and oil can stabilize.
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