Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong IPO Market Expected to Raise Up to $60 Billion in 2026
Alina Collins
Goldman Sachs expects Hong Kong's IPO market to raise $60 billion in 2026, up sharply from $37 billion in 2025; this signals Hong Kong is emerging from a multi-year slump to reclaim its position as one of the world's most active listing venues.
What is driving this recovery?
Goldman says this is not a simple cyclical bounce — it is the convergence of macro, regulatory, and structural forces.
A late-2024 policy pivot lifted Hong Kong equities, reigniting corporate appetite for fundraising. At the same time, the CSRC's "nine measures" slowed A-share IPO approvals, pushing more mainland companies to list in Hong Kong instead.
This means → Hong Kong is not passively waiting for a turn — it is actively absorbing listing demand squeezed out of the A-share market.
HKEX has also rolled out incentives: confidential filing for specialist tech companies and a streamlined approval process to attract new-economy listings.
Are new listings actually making money?
IPOs from 2025–2026 delivered a median three-month return of about 20% and an average return of 60%, far above historical norms.
The best performers share common traits: large standalone listings in high-growth sectors, with cornerstone investors holding 30%–50% of the deal.
In plain terms = heavy institutional backing stabilises the stock after listing, which also improves odds for retail investors.
Can supply and demand hold up?
Goldman estimates total equity supply in Hong Kong will reach $110 billion in 2026 — $60 billion from IPOs plus $50 billion from follow-on offerings.
Demand is far larger: corporate dividends and buybacks at roughly $180 billion, global long-only capital reallocation at $200–300 billion, and southbound inflows at about $200 billion.
This means → buyer capital dwarfs seller supply — the market is unlikely to choke on "too much issuance" in the near term.
What about the lock-up expiry overhang?
Around $230 billion in restricted shares will unlock over the next twelve months — a significant potential source of selling pressure.
Goldman points to two buffers: potential Hang Seng Index inclusions that would trigger passive fund buying, and Stock Connect expansion channelling mainland capital inflows.
In plain terms = lock-up expiries will add volume, but index rebalancing and Connect expansion can absorb part of the selling — enough to prevent a stampede.
Who benefits most directly?
The IPO recovery first unblocks exit channels for financial investors, easing liquidity pressure in China's private-equity market and potentially re-accelerating PE/VC deal activity.
HKEX (00388) and Chinese brokerages with strong offshore franchises stand to benefit directly from the pick-up in primary-market activity.
This reflects a wider point: the IPO market is not just about "issuing shares" — it is the starting link of the entire capital chain, transmitting from PE exits to brokerage revenue to secondary-market liquidity.
Is international capital confidence really back?
A growing number of global sovereign wealth funds and pension funds are participating in Hong Kong IPOs as cornerstone investors — a direct signal that long-term international capital is regaining confidence.
Goldman cautions, however, that sustainability depends on the pace of global long-only reallocation and the trajectory of mainland China's policy environment evolving in tandem.
This means → confidence is returning, but it has not fully landed — if policy signals waver, international capital could shift back to the sidelines at any time.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.