Goldman Sachs Optical Industry Research: CPO Testing and Coupling Equipment First to Deliver Revenue
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs finds CPO commercialization still needs time, but test and coupling equipment is already generating revenue — different links in the optical supply chain are on different profit clocks, and that gap defines the core investment debate today.
How big is the 800G transceiver demand?
Goldman has raised its 2027/2028 forecasts for 800G-and-above transceivers by 39% and 36%, to 144 million and 171 million units — and after this survey round, analysts say there is still upside.
Surveyed Chinese companies put global demand at 130–200 million units; China alone is expected to exceed 50 million, led by 400G and 800G, with 1.6T entering the mix.
On pricing, 800G module discounts in 2027 are expected to stay in the single digits; 1.6T holds above $700 per unit.
This means → demand is not the problem. The real bottleneck sits on the supply side — volumes are large, prices are stable, but whether the industry can actually produce enough is what matters.
Where is supply stuck?
Digital signal processors — DSPs, the "brain" chip inside a transceiver — along with lasers and printed circuit boards (PCBs) may continue to constrain 2027 shipments.
TongDing Interconnection's 200G electro-absorption modulated laser (EML, a core component that converts electrical signals into light) is in mass production, but output is capped by tight DSP supply; the company has locked in 10 million DSP units for 2027.
In plain terms = the laser is ready, but the "brain" chip is not — the whole line runs at the speed of its slowest link.
Why does test & coupling equipment cash in first?
Goldman forecasts CPO switch shipments of 10k, 92k, and 131k units for 2026–2028, while demand for 3.2T near-package optics (NPO — placing the optical engine close to the chip package) engines is strong from both Chinese and overseas customers.
Rocketech's Q2 2026 revenue grew 172% quarter-on-quarter, beating Goldman's estimate by 141%; together with subsidiary FiconTEC, it expects next year's equipment shipments to exceed half of the past twenty-five years' cumulative total.
This means → CPO itself is not yet in volume production, but you need test and alignment tools *before* you can build CPO — equipment makers' revenue arrives one to two years ahead of the end product.
This reflects a supply-chain pattern: the closer you are to "the tools you need before you can make things," the earlier the money comes.
How do you cut scrap costs?
High-value photonic integrated circuits — PICs, chips that carry signals with light instead of electricity — must catch defects early. Double-sided wafer testing, known-good-die (KGD) screening, and precision coupling are the keys.
Enlitech's NightJar system identifies optical loss and defects upfront; Gallant Precision's dual-fiber-array active alignment tool cuts coupling time by 50%; Fittech's assembly systems cover transceivers, NPO, and CPO applications.
ASMPT's MEGA platform integrates high-precision die attach, dispensing, UV curing, and 3D inspection. Rocketech targets a 50–60% reduction in wafer-level test time and a 4× speed-up in die-level testing next year.
What is upgrading in lasers and fiber arrays?
Visual Photonics Epitaxy (VPEC) sees improved supply of indium phosphide (InP — the key substrate for high-performance lasers) and plans to expand core equipment from 62 to 69 units by Q2 2027, with a new production site in planning.
Its epi-wafer products are moving from 70–100 mW CW lasers up to 100 mW+ for NPO and 300–400 mW for CPO, while also expanding into 100G and 200G EML.
Fiber Optic Communication (FOCI) is upgrading fiber arrays from 40-channel (serving 3.2T) to 80-channel (serving 6.4T); 100-channel is still in R&D. August revenue grew 20% month-on-month.
How does Goldman price these names?
Innolight A-shares: target price RMB 2,645, implied upside 185.6%. H-shares: target HKD 3,267, implied upside 179.2% — both rated Buy.
Rocketech target implies roughly 26% upside; VPEC target implies 54% upside; FOCI is also rated Buy.
In plain terms = Goldman's top conviction call is Innolight, with a near-triple target price. On the equipment side, Rocketech offers less upside but higher revenue certainty — certainty vs. upside: two investment logics, two different picks.
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