Goldman Sachs Raises 2026 USD Investment-Grade Bond Issuance Forecast to $2.3 Trillion, Citing AI Demand as Key Driver
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs lifted its 2026 USD investment-grade issuance forecast to $2.3 trillion, with AI-linked borrowers now driving roughly 24% of total supply; yet rising rates have pushed year-to-date returns into negative territory, leaving the credit market caught between record volume and falling prices.
Why did Goldman raise the forecast?
Full-year gross issuance forecast rose from $2.1 trillion to $2.3 trillion; net supply climbed from $850 billion to $1 trillion.
The driver: AI-related issuers keep coming to market, already accounting for ~24% of total USD IG supply and pushing year-to-date volume to an all-time high.
Goldman noted "the summer slowdown has yet to materialize," with market participants expecting September to be extremely busy.
How does the USD market compare with the euro market?
AI-linked issuers make up 24% of USD IG supply but just 6% of euro IG supply — a fourfold gap.
This means → AI capex financing is flooding almost entirely into the dollar market, while euro IG issuance grew only 2% over the same period.
In plain terms = the companies building AI data centers are borrowing almost exclusively in the US; Europe's bond market has barely seen the wave.
What does 2027 look like?
Goldman projects USD IG gross issuance will rise further to $2.4 trillion in 2027.
But hyperscalers — the largest cloud-infrastructure firms such as AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud — are starting to look beyond the dollar for funding.
This means → euro IG, as the biggest alternative public-debt market, may see its technical edge over USD shrink — the dollar's dominance could begin to loosen.
Issuance hit a record — so why are returns negative?
Both USD IG and euro IG have delivered negative total returns year to date.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 61 basis points this year, wiping out most coupon income; the German 10-year yield rose 52 basis points, eroding euro IG's spread cushion.
In plain terms = bonds sold briskly and buyers showed up, but rates climbed faster — holders are underwater so far this year.
Why do rates keep climbing?
Global bond yields have surged to multi-year highs: Germany's 10-year hit its highest since 2011; the US 10-year reached its peak since November 2023.
Three pressures behind the move: elevated energy costs + massive government borrowing + rising inflation concerns.
This reflects a deepening market bet that rates will stay higher for longer — not just a short-term fluctuation.
What to watch next?
Goldman's base case still calls for yields to ease, which would improve returns — but still below historical averages.
If rates stay near current levels, USD and euro IG returns will fall well short of expectations.
Two key variables to track: ① whether AI-driven issuance can sustain its pace ② when rates finally turn — the first determines volume, the second determines price.
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