Goldman Sachs: Speculative Longs Re-Enter Copper Market as Prices Stabilize
nashnova research
Managed-money selling of copper futures hit a three-and-a-half-year high in mid-September, but physical-industry buyers stepped in at the lows and speculative longs have since returned — copper has rebounded 3.9%, and Goldman says this sell-off is fundamentally different from the tariff-driven crash before it.
How severe was this sell-off?
Between September 8 and 15, managed money sold $2.6 billion in high-grade copper futures — the largest liquidation since April 2023.
Of that, $2.2 billion was long liquidation — bulls closing positions, not bears opening new ones.
This means → the selling pressure came from "longs capitulating," not from a fresh directional short attack. The nature of the move was panic de-risking.
Why did it all hit at once?
Goldman identified three triggers landing simultaneously: tariff uncertainty (the White House has not decided whether to impose duties on refined copper), AI industry leaders calling for a more cautious pace (dampening expectations for rapid data-center buildout), and Middle East escalation driving a sharp oil rally that tightened financial conditions.
Managed-money long positioning in high-grade copper remains positively correlated with Goldman's data-center equity basket — a group of stocks tracking the data-center supply chain — which fell 6.9% over the same period.
In plain terms = copper didn't fall because of copper supply and demand. It was hit by three things at once: the AI narrative cooling, tariffs hanging unresolved, and an oil-price spike.
What makes this different from the last tariff-driven crash?
In late July through early August, copper futures plunged 22%. Managed money net-sold $1.9 billion, while physical-industry participants — producers, merchants, processors, and users (PMPU) — and swap dealers saw their long-position changes roughly offset each other. The industry side did not step in.
This time, those two categories of physical participants added $1.7 billion in combined long positions.
This means → last time everyone ran together; this time speculative money ran but the physical industry bought the dip — real-economy demand put a floor under the price.
What drove the rebound?
Between September 15 and 18, Goldman's data-center equity basket nearly recovered its full five-day decline. Oil prices eased in tandem, and copper futures rallied 3.9%.
The options market shifted bullish: the three-month, normalized 25-delta put–call skew — a gauge of how much more traders pay for downside protection versus upside exposure — dropped to roughly the 5th percentile of its one-year range.
In plain terms = it wasn't just the spot market bouncing. The options market was also betting on upside — traders were paying far more for call protection than for put protection.
Can the stabilization hold?
Goldman's CTA model framework — a quantitative system that tracks trend momentum and estimates systematic fund flows — shows copper's short-term momentum has turned positive, and the model's projected large-scale outflows have eased.
Goldman cautions, however, that sustained stabilization depends on two things: the pace of tariff-policy resolution and the degree to which data-center buildout expectations recover.
This reflects a window where copper is "stabilized short-term but unresolved medium-term" — physical buying and positive momentum provide a buffer, but the fundamental uncertainties have not been cleared.
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