Goldman Sachs: U.S. Stock Earnings Bubble Fears Are Overblown, S&P 500 Expected to Reach 8,700
nashnova research
Goldman strategist Ben Snider says US corporate earnings are backed by real fundamentals and AI investment, calling bubble fears overblown — he sees the S&P 500 rising 14% to roughly 8,700 — but Bank of America warns positioning is far too crowded, with the debate hinging on whether the AI earnings tailwind survives past 2027.
How strong are earnings, really?
S&P 500 constituents posted ~30% year-on-year profit growth in each of the first two quarters — among the best on record.
Full-year earnings expectations are the strongest since the post-Covid rebound in 2021; consensus sees profit growth of 19% in 2027 and 17% in 2028.
This means → current stock levels are not floating on valuation hype alone — real profit growth is doing the heavy lifting.
Why does Goldman say bubble talk is overblown?
Snider's core call: even as AI-driven "excess earnings" fade, profit growth will slow, not collapse.
Goldman forecasts 11% earnings growth next year — slightly below consensus, but still firmly positive.
In plain terms = Goldman concedes the pace will downshift, but sees it as "going from a sprint to a brisk walk" — not a stumble.
What gets the S&P to 8,700?
Snider expects the S&P 500 to rise 14% over the next year to roughly 8,700, driven by earnings growth, not multiple expansion.
This means → his bet is not on sentiment staying euphoric, but on companies actually earning more.
Snider has a credible track record: he correctly predicted that strong earnings and AI adoption would offset higher oil prices and rate hikes, keeping the bull market alive.
Why is Bank of America pushing back?
BofA strategists Jared Woodard and Michael Hartnett warn that investor positioning remains far too crowded given the outlook for slowing profit growth.
The data backs them up: EPFR Global figures show US equity funds drew nearly $64 billion in net inflows in a single week — the largest in almost three months.
In plain terms = BofA's message is that everyone is having too much fun making money and forgetting the speed bump ahead.
Why is 2027 the key inflection point?
Goldman expects the AI-investment boost to earnings to start fading from 2027, and semiconductor-sector margin expansion may slow as early as next year.
The Goldman-vs-BofA split comes down to one question: once the AI tailwind fades, can corporate earnings stand on their own fundamentals?
This reflects a deeper unresolved debate — the market's real question is not "are companies making money now?" but "can they still make this much after 2027?"
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