Goldman Sachs Volatility Team's Five Key Trades for Fall
nashnova research
Goldman volatility head Robbie Stankard has mapped out five options trades for autumn, built on one thesis: pair bullish tech bets with portfolio hedges while vol sits near its yearly low — with this week's payrolls and tech earnings as the first test.
Why is Goldman moving now?
Average implied volatility — the market's bet on how much prices will swing — across Nasdaq 100 stocks has dropped roughly 20 vol points since mid-July, near the year's floor.
This means → options "premiums" are cheap; the cost of both bullish bets and hedges is at a low.
Stankard's logic is blunt: when vol is cheap, bundle upside positions with protective hedges — the best bang for the buck.
What do the five trades bet on?
Trade 1: Buy AMAT (Applied Materials) calls — October expiry, $520 strike, $8.75 cost. The stock has fallen roughly 40% since late June, but Goldman sees revenue acceleration and margin expansion into 2027.
Trade 2: Sell IGV (software ETF) upside calls + buy SMH (semiconductor ETF) upside calls — SMH's upside vol premium over IGV is at a five-year-plus low, letting software's "expensive" fund semis' "cheap."
Trade 3: Buy IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) calls — September 30 expiry, $300 strike, $2.48 cost. The bet: weak payrolls data sends money rushing into rate-sensitive small caps.
Trade 4: Buy QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) calls — September expiry, $725 strike, $4.01 cost, breakeven at a 2.8% rally. The NDX-to-S&P 500 vol spread has fallen back below its five-year average — broad tech options look cheap.
Why does the fifth trade stand alone?
The first four are offense; the fifth is insurance: buy a VIX October 21 expiry 20/30 call spread for about $1, offering roughly 10× leverage.
In plain terms = spend $1 on a policy that says "if the fear index spikes above 20, pay me back" — maximum payout $10.
Stankard quotes the trading-floor maxim: "Hedge when you can, not when you have to."
Why does Brazil show up here?
Goldman flags heavy buying of November/December upside options on the Brazil ETF (EWZ); one client bought 68,675 contracts of the December 35/38 call spread in a single clip.
This reflects investors locking in "right-tail exposure" — a position that pays on a low-probability surge — ahead of Brazil's election, the same logic as the U.S. autumn playbook: bet early while premiums are cheap.
What are the next checkpoints?
This week: nonfarm payrolls (Goldman's own forecast is just +40K, well below consensus) + earnings from Broadcom (AVGO) and other tech names.
Next week: Goldman's Communacopia tech conference + AMAT's October investor day.
This means → if payrolls do come in soft, Trade 3 (small-cap calls) benefits first; if tech earnings and the conference send positive signals, the bullish thesis behind Trades 1, 2, and 4 gets validated in tandem.
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