Goldman Strategists: Stocks Caught Between Iran, Midterm Elections, and Bond Market Volatility
nashnova research
Goldman strategist Natasha Tiwana argues that Iran tensions, whipsawing rates, and midterm election anxiety have left US equities stuck — valuation pullbacks cap the downside, but elevated risk appetite caps the upside too.
Why are equities "stuck in both directions"?
Tiwana frames the current setup as a stalemate: elevated risk appetite plus potential growth shocks cap the upside.
But valuations have already pulled back, and markets have room to reprice away from the most hawkish rate path — limiting the downside.
This means → index-level implied volatility looks calm, yet thematic and factor volatility remain elevated — the surface is still, but the water underneath is churning.
What is the bond market tug-of-war about?
Iran escalation initially pushed short-end yields higher and weighed on gold and other dollar-depreciation trades.
Then Fed Governor Waller's dovish remarks pulled September hike expectations down — only for strong payrolls data to push them right back up.
In plain terms = the market sees "rate cut coming" one day and "no cut after all" the next — rate-sensitive assets have become the hottest hedging playground.
Why are unprofitable tech stocks singled out?
Historically, the most rate-sensitive sector is unprofitable tech — companies not yet earning profits, valued on future cash flows.
But the market is reluctant to short AI/tech outright, so traders prefer sector-neutral long-short pairs to express a rate view.
This reflects a deeper tension: these stocks have been pricing in rate cuts since mid-last-year, yet cuts have not arrived — mean-reversion pressure is building.
What are the three midterm election trade threads?
Thread one: healthcare stocks — if Democrats retake a majority, a top priority is restoring the expired Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, benefiting related names; drug-pricing controls, however, pressure pharma.
Thread two: defense vs. non-defense spending — Republican-led defense spending increases could be reversed, while non-defense government spending may rise.
Thread three: power infrastructure — US households view data centers and AI as drivers of higher electricity prices; if supply expansion normalizes rates, power-infrastructure plays benefit directly.
Why strip AI out of the hedge?
AI carries outsized weight in standard index hedging instruments; a sharp AI rally would gut the hedge's effectiveness.
This means → Tiwana names the AI-stripped SPXXAI as her preferred broad-market hedging tool right now.
The September Fed meeting is the nearest directional catalyst — its outcome could break the current equilibrium.
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