Hormuz Crisis Boosts Suez Canal Revenue by 42% as Kuwait Oil Exports Recover to Two-Thirds
nashnova research
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed by the Iran war, forcing ships through Suez and pushing July canal revenue up 42% to $505 million; Kuwait's crude exports have clawed back to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, but the Gulf supply chain remains far from normal.
Why did Suez Canal revenue spike in July?
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut by the Iran war; Houthi threats to the southern Red Sea compound the disruption, forcing vessels north through Suez.
1,340 ships transited in July, up 27% year-on-year; 526 were tankers, up from 485 in June.
Monthly revenue hit $505 million — the highest since December 2023. This means → the war is funneling "detour fees" straight into Egypt's treasury.
Why does the canal authority expect full-year revenue to nearly double?
Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie projects full-year revenue rising from $4.1 billion in 2025 to $5.8–6.0 billion.
EFG Hermes macro head Mohamed Abu Basha notes that Asian-bound crude rerouting and several European carriers resuming partial Red Sea services should sustain the recovery for months.
Even so, current levels remain far below the $10.2 billion record set in 2023 — when April alone saw roughly 2,300 transits. In plain terms = revenue is climbing, but it is still only halfway back to the ceiling.
How much of Kuwait's crude exports are back — and how is the oil getting out?
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. international marketing head Shaikh Khaled Al-Sabah says the country now exports roughly 1 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of the pre-war average of 1.6 million bpd.
The key mechanism is ship-to-ship transfer (STS) — cargo is moved between vessels outside the Hormuz chokepoint, bypassing its most dangerous stretch.
Buyers lifting outside the strait pay a premium to cover transport risk; those lifting inside the Persian Gulf get a discount. This means → same barrel of oil, different pickup point, different risk premium for the buyer.
How much oil is actually still flowing through Hormuz?
Estimates diverge: Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy puts the figure at roughly 10 million bpd (about 9 million in crude), while Macquarie Group estimates about 7 million bpd of crude and products combined.
Both figures are less than half the pre-war throughput of 20 million bpd.
In plain terms = the world's most important oil chokepoint is running at half capacity or worse; the debate is only over how deep the cut is.
Can the Gulf supply chain return to normal — and what is the key variable?
Kuwait is evaluating alternative pipeline routes that bypass Hormuz, including options running through Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Iran says an agreement with Oman on managing strait shipping is "imminent," but the U.S.–Iran standoff continues.
This reflects a core question: whether Hormuz transit can normalize further will determine if the Gulf supply-chain reshuffle is a temporary detour or a permanent reroute.
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