HSBC: AI Productivity Dividend Not Yet Priced In, U.S. Equities Still Undervalued
nashnova research
HSBC's global CIO Willem Sels says the S&P 500 at 19× forward P/E is not expensive — markets have yet to price AI-driven earnings growth — but 10-year Treasury yields near 5% remain the biggest tail risk.
19× forward earnings — why call that "not expensive"?
The S&P 500 trades at roughly 19× forward P/E; the Stoxx 600 sits at about 15×. The gap has narrowed significantly.
This means → the market has already priced in doubt about whether US earnings growth can last. This is not blind optimism.
In plain terms = US stocks used to carry a much bigger premium over Europe. That premium has shrunk, which tells you pessimism has already done some work.
Is AI actually making money?
Sels cites data showing AI-adopting firms outperform non-adopters in earnings, revenue, and margin growth — concentrated in the US.
This means → AI is no longer just a capex story. It is producing measurable gains in actual operations.
The market is still waiting for more quarterly results and order-book data to confirm the growth curve can extend.
Why are chip stocks trading at a discount?
Chipmakers are being discounted by investors who doubt 2027 earnings forecasts are achievable.
Sels expects this pessimism to reverse once companies deliver harder evidence through order books and forward guidance.
In plain terms = the market does not dislike chips — it thinks the payoff is drawn too far out. Once order data confirms the timeline, prices should catch up.
5% yields — where is the ceiling for equities?
Sels flags US 10-year Treasury yields reaching ~5% as the single biggest risk to stocks.
JPMorgan's Grace Peters and Barclays' Emmanuel Cau both say a 10-year yield at 5% would make investors markedly more cautious on equities.
This reflects a broader shift: the bond market is once again driving equity decisions — the US-Iran conflict revives oil and inflation fears, while hawkish Fed and ECB signals plus fiscal concerns push yields higher.
Can Europe serve as a diversification tool?
Sels argues Europe's vulnerability to energy shocks is lower than previously feared, positioning the region as a hedge for portfolios overweight US AI trades.
The recent rotation from tech into financials has already benefited European equities.
In plain terms = if your portfolio is all-in on the US AI chain, adding European exposure — especially financials catching capital rotating out of tech — can reduce volatility.
What has to hold for this thesis to work?
Two verification points: AI earnings must keep delivering + Treasury yields must stabilize below 5%.
If AI earnings growth is disproved, "not yet priced in" becomes "should never have been priced in." If yields breach 5%, even strong earnings will not prevent valuation compression.
This means → Sels's optimism is conditional — he is betting on the combination of "earnings keep beating expectations + rates stay under control."
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。