IEA Forecasts Global Coal Demand to Hit Record 8.94 Billion Tonnes in 2026
nashnova research
The IEA forecasts 2026 global coal demand at a record 8.94 billion tonnes, up roughly 1.2% year-on-year; disrupted LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are the core driver, pushing the long-predicted coal 'peak' further into the future.
Why is coal demand hitting another record?
The core driver is the Middle East conflict: tensions at the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted LNG shipping, tightening global gas supply and pushing prices higher.
This means → coal has regained a cost edge in power generation. Economies with idle coal-fired capacity — Europe, Japan, South Korea — are switching back to coal.
In plain terms = the gas "pipeline" got choked, so power plants turned back to coal. Coal didn't get better; gas got expensive.
How wide is the gap between countries?
The steepest growth comes from South Korea (+6%) and India (+4.2%) — both are deepening their reliance on coal-fired power.
Moving the other way: the US (-7%) and Japan (-1%), where demand continues to shrink.
This reflects a gap in energy mix and substitution capacity: economies with gas or renewable alternatives are cutting coal; those without are forced to burn more.
Is weather also pushing coal demand higher?
The IEA flags an unusually intense El Niño expected this year.
This means → cooling-driven electricity demand rises while hydropower output falls — a double squeeze that forces grids to lean on coal to fill the gap.
Can the supply side keep up?
The IEA expects global coal output to stay above 9 billion tonnes for a third consecutive year.
A slight dip is projected for 2026 as stockpiles build; 2027 output is expected to edge back up.
In plain terms = there is no shortage of coal to mine. Producers will ease off when stockpiles pile up, but they won't truly cut back.
Is coal's 'peak' ever actually coming?
The key variable is singular: whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can resume.
If geopolitical tensions ease, LNG flows resume, and gas prices fall, the IEA projects 2027 coal demand declining 0.4% to 8.91 billion tonnes.
If the strait remains largely closed to LNG, demand faces further upside — the timing of coal's 'peak' hinges on how the Middle East situation evolves.
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