India's Stock Market Underperformance vs. Emerging Markets Hits Widest Gap in Nearly 30 Years
Nashnova编辑部
The MSCI India Index trailed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 44.9 percentage points over the past 12 months — the widest gap since 1996; the last time a similar extreme appeared, India outperformed by 6.9% annually over the following decade.
What does a 44.9-point gap actually mean?
As of August 19, 2026, the MSCI India Index's trailing 12-month total return (in USD) lagged the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 44.9 percentage points, per Refinitiv data.
This means → for every $100 invested, buying India over the past year returned roughly $45 less than a broad EM basket — a shortfall not seen in nearly 30 years.
Jeff Weniger, chief investment strategist at Corgi Invest, cited the data, noting the gap began widening sharply in 2025 and hit -44.9% in 2026.
How close is this to the all-time extreme?
Weniger's chart shows the deepest underperformance in the series going back to 1993 was -47.1%, recorded in the mid-1990s.
The current -44.9% sits just ~2 percentage points above that historic floor.
In plain terms = India's relative "cold spell" versus EM peers is about as severe as anything on record.
What happened after the last extreme?
The chart notes a historical reference: after the mid-1990s trough, Indian equities outperformed EM by an average of 6.9% per year over roughly the next decade.
This reflects a pattern where extreme relative weakness has not been permanent — the subsequent mean reversion was both large and prolonged.
Weniger, however, made no forecast about future performance; whether the current gap marks a turning point remains to be seen.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.