iPhone 18 Pro Overseas Pre-Order Demand Appears Weak; Speculative Signals in China and Hong Kong Markets Questionable
nashnova research
Two days into iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders, delivery wait times in major overseas markets have shortened by 5–11 days year-on-year, a signal Jefferies reads as softer demand; China and Hong Kong wait times rose, but analysts suspect speculative hoarding is the main driver.
What do shorter overseas wait times actually tell us?
Jefferies' September 14 tracking data shows 18 Pro Max delivery waits in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan are 5–11 days shorter than last year's 17 Pro Max at the same point.
18 Pro has zero wait in the US; most other overseas markets also shortened by 1–11 days.
This means → with production pace roughly flat versus last generation, shorter waits = fewer people rushing to buy = weaker demand.
Last year, 17 Pro Max waits ran noticeably longer than the 16 series and proved to be a reliable leading indicator of strong sales — this year's reversal is the concern.
China-HK wait times rose — genuine demand or scalper noise?
18 Pro Max wait times hit 24.5 days in mainland China and 24.5 days in Hong Kong, up from 19.8 and 17.2 days a year ago.
Jefferies flags a caveat: both markets have a long history of speculative bulk-ordering on launch day — part of the longer wait may reflect channel hoarding, not end-user demand.
In plain terms = scalpers placed large orders and stretched the queue; that does not mean the same number of real buyers are waiting.
The analyst's proposed test: watch resale premiums after the September 18 first shipment — if premiums narrow or dip below retail, speculative demand is fading fast.
How bearish is Jefferies on Apple's stock?
Jefferies maintains an "Underperform" rating on Apple with a 12-month target of $263.66, implying roughly 21% downside from the current price of $332.27.
The target rests on a DCF model — discounted cash flow, a method that estimates what all of a company's future cash is worth today — running through fiscal 2031, using a 7.8% weighted-average cost of capital and a 4.3% terminal growth rate, yielding about 30.0× FY2026 estimated P/E.
This means → even setting pre-order data aside, Jefferies sees Apple's current share price as significantly overvalued.
Apple's foldable Duo — software praised, hardware behind by how much?
Duo pre-orders open October 16. Early reviews are largely positive on iOS fold-screen integration: smooth inner-outer screen transitions, native split-screen logic, and app continuity.
Hardware weak spots stand out: multitasking caps at two simultaneous apps (Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 supports three), limited floating windows, and no desktop-mode features.
On cameras, Duo carries only a 48 MP main + 48 MP ultrawide setup with no dedicated telephoto; Xiaomi 18 Fold packs a triple system led by a 200 MP Leica main sensor and a 50 MP 3.5× optical zoom.
At $2,000, will the spec gap push buyers away?
Duo starts at $1,999, weighs 254 g, and folds to 11.3 mm thick; Samsung Z Fold 8 weighs 201 g, folds to 9.7 mm, starting at $1,899; Xiaomi 18 Fold weighs 219 g, folds to 10.68 mm, starting at roughly ¥10,999.
On silicon, Duo runs Apple's in-house A20 Pro (2 nm process); Samsung and Xiaomi both use 3 nm chips.
In plain terms = Duo leads by one chip generation, but it is heavier, thicker, pricier, and carries a weaker camera array — at the $2,000-plus tier, those hardware gaps may weigh heavily on whether existing iPhone owners choose to upgrade.
Jefferies notes Apple has never won market share on spec sheets alone, but at this price point buyers compare specs seriously, and convincing premium Android foldable users to switch becomes harder still.
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