Iran Declares Offensive Shift Amid Bond Selloff, Triggering Global Stock-Bond Double Whammy
Nashnova编辑部
Iran shifted to a "full offensive" military posture just as long-dated government bonds worldwide suffered their sharpest selloff in decades — the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.321%, and Japan's 10-year yield reached a 30-year high — a simultaneous stock-and-bond rout is taking shape.
How severe is the bond selloff?
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5.321% intraday, the highest since June 2007; the 10-year stood at 4.7259%.
Japan's 10-year yield climbed to 2.945%, a 30-year high; France's equivalent hit levels last seen in 2008, Germany's returned to 2011 territory, and the UK's approached 6%.
This means → this is not a single-country event — U.S., Japanese, and European long bonds are all being sold at once, repricing global long-term rates together.
Why did Iran suddenly shift to "full offensive"?
The 60-day U.S.–Iran ceasefire expired, and Washington refused to extend it; a senior Iranian official then told Reuters that Tehran would shift to a "full offensive" posture.
In plain terms = the negotiating table has been flipped — both sides moved from "temporarily not fighting" back to "could fight any time."
Brent crude rose for a third straight day to roughly $91 a barrel; rising energy prices feed directly into inflation expectations, pouring fuel on the bond selloff.
Trump threatened Oman — what is happening diplomatically?
Trump warned that if Oman "obstructs" talks on the future status of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would bomb it.
Oman is the third ally Trump has publicly pressured this week, after South Korea and Canada.
This reflects a shift in Middle East diplomacy from multilateral mediation toward unilateral coercion, raising the risk of a Hormuz shipping disruption further.
Why is there "no one to catch" long bonds?
Fed June meeting minutes showed that U.S. Treasury buyers are migrating from "price-insensitive official sectors" (foreign central banks, etc.) to "return-sensitive private investors."
In plain terms = central banks used to absorb huge volumes without flinching at the price; now private buyers demand higher compensation — pushing up the term premium (the extra yield investors require for holding long-dated bonds).
Barclays' head of U.S. rates strategy, Anshul Pradhan, said this buyer-base shift has already added roughly 90 basis points to the 30-year term premium; meanwhile, tech companies issuing long-term debt to finance AI infrastructure are competing for the same capital pool, intensifying supply pressure.
How are equities being hit?
The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index fell 0.7%; South Korea's KOSPI tumbled 1.5% on its post-holiday reopening; the Nikkei 225 dropped 2.1%; S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3%.
In early European trading, pan-European futures fell 0.4%, DAX futures dropped 0.5%, and FTSE futures were roughly flat.
This means → rising rates plus rising energy costs create a double squeeze — capital is retreating from both stocks and bonds, and there is no near-term sign of a sentiment turn.
What to watch next?
The Fed's policy path remains unclear: soft economic data have led more traders to bet on a pause, but oil-driven inflation pressure pushes in the opposite direction.
Whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal shipping is the key checkpoint for judging if this round of oil and bond pressure can ease.
Put simply = war risk and rate risk are now lashed together — if the strait stays blocked, oil stays high; if oil stays high, bonds cannot stabilize.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.