Iran Says Hormuz Agreement with Oman Could Be Reached Within Days
nashnova research
Iran announced that talks with Oman on managing Strait of Hormuz shipping have entered their final stage, with a deal expected within days — but the U.S. is blockading Iranian ports and demanding a return to free navigation, putting the two sides on a direct collision course over the world's most important oil chokepoint.
What are Iran and Oman actually negotiating?
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Monday that talks have reached their final stage and a deal will be completed within days.
He called it an "understanding" — it would create temporary safe shipping lanes for passing vessels, then be filed with the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
This means → Iran is trying to shift the strait from "blockade and confrontation" to "managed access" — but under rules set by Iran and Oman, not the broader international community.
Why would the U.S. oppose this deal?
The U.S. is currently blockading Iranian ports to choke off oil exports and insists the strait return to pre-war free navigation.
Iran effectively closed the strait after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February — This means → the Iran-Oman deal would build a new transit regime on top of that closure, sidestepping the full reopening Washington demands.
The agreement is also expected to include service fees on passing ships. In plain terms = Iran wants to turn the strait from a free international waterway into a toll-managed channel — the opposite of the U.S. position.
How intense is the military standoff around the strait?
Just before the deal news broke, both sides were still exchanging fire: Iran said it struck three U.S.-linked vessels over the weekend for sailing "unauthorized routes."
The U.S. military said it had earlier struck three Iranian crude tankers, destroying one, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard hit two U.S. Navy warships with ballistic missiles.
This reflects a core contradiction: one side of the table is negotiating "safe lanes" while both sides are actively sinking each other's ships — whether the deal holds depends on whether the military standoff cools.
How did oil prices react, and what does it mean for ordinary people?
After the announcement, Brent crude briefly pulled back to $96.38 per barrel in London's morning session, having earlier touched an intraday high of $97.93.
The optimistic read: if the deal sticks, more tankers can safely transit the chokepoint, easing global supply pressure.
But this conflict — now roughly seven months old — has already driven up global oil, fuel, and natural gas prices, adding pressure on global inflation. In plain terms = whether the strait is open or closed shows up directly in what you pay to fill your tank and heat your home.
What to watch next?
Key question one: Can the deal actually be signed "within days"? Baghaei said he hopes no "third party" will intervene — without naming any country.
Key question two: Will the U.S. act to block the agreement? A blockade and a shipping deal cannot logically coexist for long.
This means → signing is only the first step; the real test is Washington's response — acquiescence, opposition, or military escalation.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。