Iran's Revolutionary Guard Announces Revenue-Sharing Agreement with Oman on Strait of Hormuz
Nashnova编辑部
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on August 26 that Tehran and Oman have agreed on how to divide Hormuz Strait waters and split transit revenues — but neither Iran's foreign minister nor Oman has confirmed the claim, leaving global oil markets to price in continued strait risk.
What exactly did the IRGC say?
An IRGC spokesman said the two sides agreed on each country's share of strait waters and revenue distribution, calling the outcome "acceptable to both."
This means → Iran is signaling that the blockade is not permanent and talks are moving toward reopening.
But this is the IRGC's word alone — Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has not confirmed it, and Oman's foreign ministry has not responded.
How does this differ from the earlier joint statement?
The prior joint statement from both foreign ministries mentioned only an "interim framework" to restore shipping — no mention of revenue sharing.
In plain terms = the joint statement said "we're talking"; the IRGC now says "we've agreed, including how the money is split."
This reflects a gap in messaging between Iran's power centers — the military announced a bigger breakthrough before the diplomats did.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much?
The strait previously carried roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and LNG — a chokepoint for global energy trade.
After the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran began on February 28 and Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, Iran sealed the strait. The closure is now nearly six months old.
This means → as long as the strait stays shut, a "Hormuz risk premium" remains baked into oil prices — and consumers worldwide are paying for it.
Can U.S. sanctions derail the talks?
Before the deal was announced, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled an "Economic D-Day" campaign threatening financial penalties on any country trading with Iran or helping it dodge sanctions.
But China buys more than 80% of Iran's oil exports, and Beijing has warned explicitly that it will defend its own interests.
In plain terms = Washington wants to squeeze Iran financially, but the biggest buyer is not cooperating — raising serious questions about how much bite these sanctions actually have.
What should markets watch next?
The single key question: will Iran's foreign minister and Oman formally confirm this deal?
Even if confirmed, turning an agreement into enforceable transit requires mine clearance, security guarantees, and operational logistics.
Until a permanent, verifiable transit agreement is in place, the Hormuz risk premium is expected to stay embedded in oil prices — that is the market's baseline assumption.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。