Jefferies: Global Copper Deficit Expected to Reach 440K Tonnes in 2026 as Major Miners Cut Q2 Output by 3.9%
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Jefferies' copper tracker shows major miners' Q2 output fell 3.9% year-on-year while LME spot premiums hit a three-year high, driving copper up nearly 16% this year; the bank forecasts a 440,000-tonne global deficit in 2026, widening to 782,000 tonnes by 2030.
How much did major miners' output actually drop?
Jefferies' sample — covering roughly 55% of global mine copper supply — shows Q2 aggregate output of 3.113 million tonnes, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 2.7% quarter-on-quarter.
The steepest declines: Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula plunged 43% to 64,000 tonnes; Newmont fell 53% to 17,000 tonnes; Freeport-McMoRan dropped 18% to 357,000 tonnes.
This means → top-tier miners stalled in unison, all pointing to the same cluster of causes: operational disruptions, declining ore grades, and project-execution problems.
Did any miners buck the trend?
Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) produced 239,000 tonnes in Q2, up roughly 8.6% year-on-year; Teck Resources hit 136,000 tonnes, up about 24%; MMG reached 138,000 tonnes, also with clear gains.
In plain terms = some miners posted strong numbers, but they are not big enough to fill the hole the majors left.
Jefferies' verdict: mine-supply risk is clearly skewed to the downside — grade decline and resource depletion are long-term structural constraints.
Why is the copper price surging this hard?
The LME spot premium over three-month copper widened to $478 per tonne — the highest since the 2021 squeeze.
At the time of the report, LME three-month copper was up 1.4% at $14,360.50 per tonne, on track for an eighth straight weekly gain and closing in on this year's January intraday record of $14,527.50.
This means → supply contraction plus physical tightness are reinforcing each other, pushing copper up nearly 16% year-to-date.
How wide is the 2026–2030 deficit?
Jefferies' supply-demand model projects 2026 global copper demand at 28.184 million tonnes versus supply of 27.742 million tonnes — a 442,000-tonne gap.
The deficit widens each year after that, reaching an estimated 782,000-tonne shortfall by 2030.
Three demand drivers: grid buildout (copper demand CAGR 5.0%), renewables, and EVs (copper demand CAGR 9.6% through 2025–2030).
What is Jefferies' view on copper prices and stocks?
Price forecasts: $13,380/t average in 2026 → $14,330 in 2027 → $17,637 in 2030.
The bank maintains Buy ratings on Freeport-McMoRan, Anglo American, Glencore, First Quantum Minerals, Teck Resources, and Lundin Mining.
This reflects Jefferies' long-term copper call: even after factoring in ramp-ups at Kamoa-Kakula, QB2, and Oyu Tolgoi underground, supply risk still skews to the downside — whether the gap narrows before 2030 hinges on actual project ramp speeds and the global growth trajectory.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.