JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Tongwei See Deepening Losses in H1 as China's Solar Overcapacity Pressure Persists
nashnova research
Three of China's largest solar manufacturers — JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Tongwei — all reported widening losses for first-half 2026, driven by overcapacity and weakening demand at home and abroad.
Three industry leaders in the red — what went wrong?
JinkoSolar (晶科能源), JA Solar (晶澳科技), and Tongwei (通威股份) each reported wider H1 2026 losses, all citing the same cause: excess capacity plus soft demand.
This means → the problem is not company-specific. The entire industry's supply-demand imbalance has reached the profit lines of even the top players.
In plain terms = too much product, too few buyers — and even the biggest names cannot absorb the hit.
How far has demand actually fallen?
China added just 72.07 GW of new solar capacity in H1, down from 212.2 GW in the year-ago period — a drop of more than 60%.
Part of the decline is a base effect: a rush to install ahead of June 2025 electricity-pricing reforms inflated last year's figure.
But JA Solar itself acknowledged that capacity cuts and consolidation "have yet to fully take effect" and that the industry still faces "both cyclical and structural overcapacity."
This means → even after adjusting for the installation rush, the structural glut has not eased.
Can exports pick up the slack?
No. Chinese solar-equipment exports fell 21.4% year-on-year last month; customs data show the U.S. tariff war is now feeding through to export channels.
JinkoSolar said overseas trade barriers have "comprehensively escalated" and traditional export routes are "being reshaped."
Adding to the squeeze, Beijing scrapped export-tax rebates for solar manufacturers in April, further compressing margins.
In plain terms = domestic sales are stalling, exports are hit by tariffs on one side and the rebate removal on the other — companies have no breathing room on either front.
Solar capacity has nearly caught up with coal — what does that signal?
As of end-June, China's cumulative solar capacity stood at 1,274 GW; coal-fired capacity was 1,275 GW — a gap of less than 1 GW.
This reflects the sheer scale solar has already reached: even with new additions slowing sharply, the existing base is enormous and hard to absorb.
This means → overcapacity cannot be resolved by organic demand growth alone. The real path out runs through capacity consolidation and the rebuilding of export channels.
When might losses bottom out?
Two verification points to watch: when capacity consolidation actually lands, and whether export channels find a new equilibrium after the trade-barrier reset.
JA Solar's own language offers a clue: policy effects "need a longer period to transmit and verify" — the companies themselves cannot see a timeline.
In plain terms = the industry is waiting for two things to happen: someone exits and capacity genuinely shrinks, and a new export path opens up. Neither has materialized, so calling a trough in losses is premature.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。