JPMorgan: Copper Buying Interest Cools, Aluminum Destocking Continues, Overseas Zinc Tightens
Nashnova编辑部
JPMorgan's latest tracking data shows Chinese copper buying is cooling after prices held above $14,000/ton, aluminum stocks have fallen for 15 straight weeks, and zinc supply outside China is tightening — three base metals on three diverging paths, driven by a widening supply-demand gap between China and the rest of the world.
Copper: prices held up — so why are buyers stepping back?
Copper has stayed above $14,000/ton, yet Chinese copper inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks, ending roughly four months of drawdowns.
The Yangshan copper premium — a key gauge of Chinese physical buying strength — dropped below $100/ton to around $90/ton. This means → end-users are balking at high prices; procurement momentum has clearly cooled.
Still, visible Chinese copper stocks sit at only about 127,000 tons — overall supply remains tight. In plain terms = buyers don't want to chase the rally, but there isn't much metal around either.
Aluminum: 15 straight weeks of destocking — the most resilient demand?
Aluminum inventories have fallen for 15 consecutive weeks. China's total aluminum stock dropped below the one-million-ton mark to roughly 875,000 tons.
In the past week alone, stocks fell by about 23,000 tons. This means → aluminum's actual consumption and inventory drawdown pace is the steadiest of the three metals.
This reflects ongoing pull from downstream sectors — solar, EVs, construction profiles — that are still absorbing physical metal at a healthy clip.
Zinc: piling up in China, running dry everywhere else?
Chinese zinc inventories rose by about 6,000 tons last week to roughly 270,000 tons — the highest level since 2022.
Outside China, the picture is the opposite: LME (London Metal Exchange — the global benchmark venue for metals pricing) zinc stocks are at historic lows, and the LME spot premium — the amount spot prices exceed futures, signaling near-term supply tightness — surged over the past week.
JPMorgan argues that if the offshore deficit keeps widening, LME zinc prices must rise further to pull surplus metal out of China. In plain terms = high Chinese stockpiles do not mean the world has enough zinc — prices need to climb until the export channel opens.
Macro signals: one tailwind, one headwind — what wins?
Tailwind: The U.S. Treasury this week doubled the size of its long-bond liquidity-support buyback program, pushing Treasury yields lower and fueling expectations of a weaker dollar. A softer dollar typically supports dollar-denominated industrial metals.
Headwind: China's July data showed slowing industrial output and a slower pace of fiscal spending. JPMorgan cut its 2026 full-year GDP growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5% and trimmed its inflation outlook.
At the same time, JPMorgan raised the probability of an earlier PBoC rate cut — the prior base case was Q4, now the timing may move forward. This means → macro forces are pulling metal prices in opposite directions; the near-term path depends on which force proves stronger.
Steel and iron ore: mills are still losing money
Chinese steel mills remain in the red; hot-rolled coil margins saw only a slight uptick as prices edged higher.
Steel inventories stand at roughly 29.6 million tons, down 1% week-on-week but still 10% above year-ago levels. Port iron-ore stocks sit at about 156 million tons, down roughly 1 million tons from the prior week.
Global iron-ore shipments in June rose 1% month-on-month but fell 5% year-on-year; Brazil was up 12% MoM but down 1% YoY. In plain terms = supply is recovering, but it's still weaker than last year, and mills' "produce more, lose more" bind hasn't broken.
Which stock does JPMorgan like most?
Among EMEA mining equities, JPMorgan's top pick is Antofagasta — the thesis is that copper-price support should trigger a free-cash-flow inflection, and brownfield expansions driving over 30% production growth mean the stock isn't expensive on 2028 estimates.
JPMorgan rates BHP and Rio Tinto (RIO) London-listed shares at neutral, while its Australian team rates both companies' ASX-listed shares overweight.
This reflects JPMorgan's core question: whether elevated copper prices can keep pulling supply from outside China is the key test for the next leg in metals pricing.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.