JPMorgan: M&A Deals Could Hit Record Highs in 2026
nashnova research
JPMorgan co-head of global investment banking Dorothee Blessing says 2026 M&A and capital-raising volumes could hit a historic high, with first-half deal flow already up ~30% year-on-year at $2.6 trillion — within striking distance of the 2021 record of $5.3 trillion.
How strong is the first-half number?
Bloomberg-compiled data show global deal volume reached $2.6 trillion in H1 2026, up roughly 30% year-on-year.
The current full-year record is $5.3 trillion, set in 2021. This means → the second half needs only $2.7 trillion more to break it — a pace the first half already sustains.
In plain terms = half the year is done, and more than half the record is already in the books.
Why are companies rushing to deal now?
Blessing noted that boardroom agendas have shifted from defence to growth. "The conversations we have at board level are all about growth," she said.
This reflects a broader pivot: executives are fully aware of macro complexity but are choosing to push strategic agendas through uncertainty rather than wait.
Rising strategic M&A demand suggests companies judge the cost of waiting higher than the risk of acting now.
What is happening on the private-equity side?
Blessing said PE fund exits were noticeably slow at the start of the year — some portfolio valuations sat above what the market would pay. In plain terms = sellers were asking too much, buyers wouldn't bite.
That has begun to shift: some funds, once confident deals can close, have re-entered the M&A and IPO markets.
This means → the move from "watching" to "doing" in PE is one of the key variables for whether second-half volumes can surge.
What are the sceptics worried about?
Market doubts centre on a cluster of risks: Iran tensions, rising energy prices, inflation pressure, and trade-policy uncertainty.
Sceptics argue these factors could break the current deal momentum and make it hard to sustain the first-half pace through year-end.
Blessing's response was direct: management teams know the challenges — the question is "how to navigate a strategic agenda through uncertainty." In plain terms = the risks are known, but they are not a reason to stop.
Will the full-year record actually fall?
The honest answer: it still depends on second-half deal pace. First-half momentum is necessary but not sufficient.
Blessing's own condition is that "deal activity maintains its current pace through year-end." This means → any geopolitical shock or liquidity squeeze in H2 could keep the record intact.
Put simply = the numbers look strong, the direction is clear, but the final verdict won't land until December.
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