JPMorgan: Oil Prices Hit Resistance Ceiling, Gold Bearish Medium-Term, Copper Top Awaiting Confirmation
Taylor Wilson
JPMorgan technical strategist Jason Hunter flagged on July 21 that Brent crude, gold, and copper have all reached key resistance levels simultaneously — with limited upside and clearer downside risk across all three.
Where does oil stall out?
Brent crude (Dec 2026 contract) bounced from the $72–72.50 support zone, then hit dense resistance at $83–85.71.
Three layers of pressure overlap here: $83–84 is the June pattern breakdown level, $84.65 is the May 61.8% Fibonacci retracement — a method that uses prior price swings to estimate how far a bounce can go — and $85.71 is the tactical base-pattern target.
JPMorgan views this band as "the likely upper bound of the summer trading range." This means → barring a surprise catalyst, oil is likely to top out here and pull back.
Hunter added that "significant geopolitical and headline risks make it difficult to have strong conviction in chart-based calls."
What are the breakout and breakdown levels for oil?
If Brent clears the resistance zone, the next target is $97.87 — the December 2020 channel resistance.
If it breaks below $78.32–78.97 near-term pattern-breakout support, short-term bullish momentum would be "completely unwound."
In plain terms = upside caps at 98, downside opens at 78 — everything in between is summer range-trading.
Why is gold bearish on a medium-term basis?
Spot gold is testing support near $4,074 and $3,886. A momentum-divergence buy signal has appeared, and some near-term consolidation is possible.
But JPMorgan is explicit: "upside is expected to be limited through the summer." Three factors weigh on gold: no medium-term accumulation pattern on the chart — meaning price hasn't built a base with repeated buying — the dollar index trading above its annual breakout, and the 2-year Treasury yield breaking out of a multi-quarter range.
This means → as long as gold stays below the $4,197–4,264 trendline cluster, JPMorgan sees a "strong negative medium-term bias," with resistance near $4,500.
If gold keeps falling, where is support?
The next support targets on a renewed decline are $3,605 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) and $3,400–3,500 (the Q4 2025 breakout zone).
In plain terms = if $3,886 doesn't hold, two floors remain — $3,605 and $3,400 — both key steps left behind during the prior rally.
Has copper already topped out?
LME three-month copper broke above tactical pattern resistance near $13,400, relieving immediate bearish pressure.
But JPMorgan notes that copper lost significant long-term bullish momentum at the $14,000–15,000 resistance zone in 2026. The "chart pattern looks like a potential cycle top."
This means → copper's pullback may not be a simple correction — it could mark the end of an entire upcycle. Key support sits at $12,537–12,988; a break below would reinforce the medium-term bearish outlook.
How much room do aluminium, nickel, and silver have to bounce?
Aluminium: the rally from $3,043 is "corrective," not trend-driven. Near-term resistance at $3,325; ceiling over coming months at $3,400–3,500. A renewed decline targets $2,868.
Nickel: after the May–July sell-off, nickel bounced from $16,208–16,437 mid-term support. JPMorgan expects meaningful selling pressure at $17,481–17,790 because "the market has not yet formed a meaningful accumulation pattern." If support breaks, a full retracement to $13,865–14,235 is possible.
Silver: spot silver stabilised after testing the $53.39–54.73 mid-term support zone. A near-term bounce may fade near $64, with larger resistance at $66.87–72.07. This reflects a synchronised bearish technical picture across multiple commodities — whether copper's support holds will be the next key validation point.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.